Mississippi Today
Several GOP consultants share predictions about runoff between Tate Reeves, Brandon Presley
Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor's race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor's race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.
OXFORD — The buzz of the annual “Good Ole Boys and Gals” political event on Thursday wasn't the stump speeches from high-profile politicians ahead of the Nov. 7 statewide election. It wasn't the big season Ole Miss football is having, and it wasn't even the sweet-smelling BBQ chicken.
It was Gov. Tate Reeves' poll numbers and the growing likelihood of a Nov. 28 gubernatorial runoff between Reeves and his Democratic challenger Brandon Presley.
One consultant at the event who is not affiliated with the Reeves campaign said they had seen a recent internal poll that showed the incumbent governor several points under 50%. A significant portion of voters, the source said, remained undecided or said they will cast votes for Gwendolyn Gray, an independent candidate.
“There have been several polls in the last 10 days that almost guarantee he'll be in a runoff election,” the consultant, who asked to remain anonymous in order to speak frankly, said. “I would think the Democrats are smelling blood in the water.”
Gray has publicly announced that she is no longer seeking the office and supporting Presley. Her announcement, however, came too late because state officials had already printed ballots, so her presence on the ballot created a runoff probability.
If no candidate on the general election ballot receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters will participate in a runoff election on Nov. 28, just five days after Thanksgiving.
Another consultant at the event said they had also reviewed recent polling numbers and doubted if Reeves could garner an outright majority on the first ballot, though they declined to share the specific numbers.
“I've crunched the numbers, and anyway you slice it, I'd be preparing for a runoff if I was them,” they said of the Reeves campaign.
A third consultant speculated that while the governor hasn't hit the 50% mark in some public polls, they don't believe it will actually translate into a runoff scenario on Election Day. They believe undecided voters will get Reeves over 50%.
With insiders digesting poll numbers, baked beans and coleslaw at the event on Thursday, it was notable that so many attendees were openly speculating about the fact an incumbent Republican governor in a reliably red state may not win on the first ballot.
Reeves, in his speech to the event's attendees, did not directly mention the runoff possibility, but he appeared to hint at the trouble he's had reaching 50%. In his stump speech — well, technically a “bench speech” as the candidates at the event stand on an old, wooden bench — he said the only way he could win the general election is “if conservatives show up to the polls.”
“I'm proud of the fact that we're winning in every poll out there, even in the ones where they fake the outcome,” Reeves said. “But none of those polls matter. The only poll that matters is the one that's taken on Election Day.”
One person who was noticeably absent was Presley, who currently represents Oxford as north Mississippi's public service commissioner and has attended the event in previous years. John Morgan, one of the event's organizers and an Oxford alderman, told attendees that Presley's campaign initially indicated they would come and participate, but he did not show.
Reeves seized on Presley's absence at the festival, located in the Democrat's home turf of north Mississippi and roughly an hour away from his hometown of Nettleton.
“I'm going to be honest with you: I'm not at all surprised that my opponent didn't have the guts to show up in north Mississippi tonight,” Reeves said. “He's probably in California or New York meeting with billionaires who are funding his campaign.”
Presley, in a statement to Mississippi Today, did not address his absence but criticized Reeves' rhetoric.
“Tate Reeves talks real tough and acts real wimpy,” Presley said. “I look forward to cleaning his clock across my home region of North Mississippi on Election Day where I've been elected four times.”
Partisan brinkmanship may have been on display between the two candidates for governor, but there were unifying moments on Thursday to mark the death of Johnny Morgan, a former state lawmaker who first organized “Good Ole Boys and Gals” in the mid-1980s.
Morgan, a notable entrepreneur who was a cousin to the Oxford alderman, died in a plane crash in June and was widely viewed as a political powerbroker. House Speaker Philip Gunn, Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker and Reeves all paid tribute to Johnny Morgan in their speeches.
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What We're Watching
1) A lecture series continues today at Galloway United Methodist Church in downtown Jackson. Galloway, the home church of Gov. Tate Reeves, is hosting faith leaders who will advocate for Medicaid expansion, among other things. Mississippi Today's Bobby Harrison wrote last month about the series. Here's how Reeves' pastor Rev. Cary Stockett framed it: “We want it understood that this is a kingdom of God issue, grossly ignored right in the middle of the Bible Belt. We want the people who quote John 3:16 to understand that it matters to Jesus that there are people (our Mississippi neighbors) without real access to good healthcare … and so it should matter to us, too.”
2) Presley has a busy weekend ahead. On Saturday, he'll campaign in Ridgeland, Vicksburg, Yazoo City and Pike County. On Sunday, he'll campaign in Pascagoula, Gulfport and DeSoto County. That's a lot of ground to cover. We haven't seen Reeves' schedule, but it'll almost certainly be as crowded.
3) Are candidates spending any time in debate prep? The one and only debate of the cycle will be held Wednesday, Nov. 1. It is sure to be a contentious, bitter affair. If you're in the Jackson metro area, come to Hal & Mal's for a Mississippi Today watch party. We'll stream the debate live at 7 p.m. on the big screen, and we'll host some live analysis as soon as it ends.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
On this day in 1925
MAY 19, 1925
Malcolm X was born Malcolm Little in Omaha, Nebraska. When he was 14, a teacher asked him what he wanted to be when he grew up and he answered that he wanted to be a lawyer. The teacher chided him, urging him to be realistic. “Why don't you plan on carpentry?”
In prison, he became a follower of Nation of Islam leader Elijah Muhammad. In his speeches, Malcolm X warned Black Americans against self-loathing: “Who taught you to hate the texture of your hair? Who taught you to hate the color of your skin? Who taught you to hate the shape of your nose and the shape of your lips? Who taught you to hate yourself from the top of your head to the soles of your feet? Who taught you to hate your own kind?”
Prior to a 1964 pilgrimage to Mecca, he split with Elijah Muhammad. As a result of that trip, Malcolm X began to accept followers of all races. In 1965, he was assassinated. Denzel Washington was nominated for an Oscar for his portrayal of the civil rights leader in Spike Lee's 1992 award-winning film.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
On this day in 1896
MAY 18, 1896
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 7-1 in Plessy v. Ferguson that racial segregation on railroads or similar public places was constitutional, forging the “separate but equal” doctrine that remained in place until 1954.
In his dissent that would foreshadow the ruling six decades later in Brown v. Board of Education, Justice John Marshall Harlan wrote that “separate but equal” rail cars were aimed at discriminating against Black Americans.
“In the view of the Constitution, in the eye of the law, there is in this country no superior, dominant, ruling class of citizens,” he wrote. “Our Constitution in color-blind and neither knows nor tolerates classes among citizens. In respect of civil rights, all citizens are equal before the law. The humblest is the peer of the most powerful. The law … takes no account of his surroundings or of his color when his civil rights as guaranteed by the supreme law of the land are involved.”
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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Mississippi Today
Renada Stovall, chemist and entrepreneur
Renada Stovall sat on the back deck of her rural Arkansas home one evening, contemplating life when she had a life-altering epiphany…
“I gotta get out of these woods.”
She heard it as clear as lips to her ear and as deep as the trees surrounding her property. Stovall's job as a chemist had taken her all over the country. In addition to Arkansas, there were stints in Atlanta, Dallas and Reno. But she was missing home, her parents and friends. She also knew, she needed something else to do.
“I thought, what kind of business can I start for myself,” said Stovall, as she watered herbs growing in a garden behind her south Jackson home. Some of those herbs are used in her all-natural products. “I know when I lived in Reno, Nevada, where it's very hot and very dry, there really weren't products available that worked for me, my hair, and my skin suffered. I've got a chemistry degree from Spelman College. I took the plunge and decided to create products for myself.”
In 2018, Stovall's venture led to the creation of shea butter moisturizers and natural soaps. But she didn't stop there, and in December 2022, she moved home to Mississippi and got to work, expanding her product line to include body balms and butters, and shampoos infused with avocado and palm, mango butter, coconut and olive oils.
Nadabutter, which incorporates Renada's name, came to fruition.
Stovall sells her balms and moisturizers at what she calls, “pop-up markets,” across the state during the summer. She's available via social media and also creates products depending on what of her ingredients a customer chooses. “My turmeric and honey is really popular,” Stovall added.
“The all-natural ingredients I use are great for conditioning the skin and hair. All of my products make you feel soft and luscious. The shea butter I use comes from West Africa. It's my way of networking and supporting other women. And it's my wish that other women can be inspired to be self-sufficient in starting their own businesses.”
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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