Mississippi News
Legislative leaders weigh impact of inflation, odds of recession
Legislative leaders weigh impact of inflation, odds of recession
State Economist Corey Miller told legislative leaders that nationally there is a 35% chance of “a modest recession” during the upcoming calendar year.
Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann said he believes odds of a recession are much higher.
“I believe we will have a recession…,” Hosemann told reporters during a break in the hearing attended by him, House Speaker Philip Gunn and other key lawmakers who make up the Legislative Budget Committee.
Hosemann pointed out that Miller and other economists projected inflation of about 2.5% for the year and thus far it has been more than 8%.
“I think we need to be preparing for all the issues we face that come from a recession,” Hosemann added.
Overall, Miller said the state economy has slowed considerably during the current fiscal year but that both the state and national economies remain “resilient.”
“In summary, the U.S. and Mississippi economies have slowed and the risk of recession is elevated, but not the base case. Inflation remains historically high but may have peaked,” Miller said. “The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to reduce demand, which should bring down inflation.”
Miller pointed out that nationally the number of people working had surpassed the pre-pandemic levels of February 2020. Mississippi remains 10,900 jobs below the number employed in February 2020.
Members of the Legislative Budget Committee normally receive a report from the state economist as they begin work on a budget recommendation that generally serves as a guideline for the full Legislature when it convenes in January to begin work on crafting a budget for the new fiscal year that begins on July 1.
Legislators said they budgeted conservatively in the 2022 session despite unprecedented revenue collections and should do so again in 2023.
Hosemann said lawmakers held back about $350 million in federal pandemic money last session and it could be spent in the coming year to help stave off an economic downturn in Mississippi.
“If people are out working on public projects we fund with that, it will lessen the chance of a significant impact here,” the lieutenant governor said.
Getting more people working in Mississippi remains an issue, Miller said. The state's labor force participation rate, which accounts for all eligible to enter the workforce, remains one of the lowest in the nation, Miller said, at 55.2%. The pre-pandemic level was 56.2%.
The national labor force participation rate is 62.4% – a percentage point lower than the pre-pandemic rate.
Several factors could impact the lower numbers, including people retiring early and long-term symptoms of COVID-19.
The bottom line, Miller said, is that multiple factors are driving the high inflation, including higher wages driven by a lack of workers, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supply shortages affected in part by China's refusal to fully ramp up because of COVID-19 fears. Even the issue of fewer immigrant workers is contributing to the lack of workers.
While there might be disagreement on the extent of a economic downturn in Mississippi, it is a certainty that inflation has impacted all Mississippians. During the 2023 session, legislators will have to consider whether a salary increase for state workers is needed to deal with inflationary factor.
Kelly Hardwick, executive director of the State Personnel Board, told Budget Committee members he wanted more time to consider the size of any pay increase to recommend to the Legislature. But he said he expects it would be about 1.5% a year over several years, or a one-time increase of about 5%.
Both Wendy Bailey, executive director of Mental Health, and Burl Cain, corrections commissioner, said increasing pay for their employees is a key goal.
Bailey asked the Budget Committee members for a $26.6 million increase in general fund revenue to $247.7 million. A large part of the raise would go for salary increases.
She said the agency is having a difficult time competing with fast food workers for primary care workers. And salary increases are needed for nurses and other advanced health care employees.
Bailey also asked for funds to continue to adhere to demands from a U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit to provide treatment when possible on the community level instead in state institutions.
The Department of Corrections is trying to avoid a Department of Justice lawsuit based on poor conditions in Mississippi prisons. The lack of adequate staff continues to be an area of concern for DOJ.
“We do not have adequate staffing to manage our population,” Cain said.
Cain is asking lawmakers for a $32-million increase to his budget. Most of that, about $20 million, would be to cover rising medical costs for inmates. About $7.5 million would be increased per diem paid to private prisons for state inmates.
Child Protection Services, the agency that runs the state's long-troubled foster care system, is asking lawmakers for a $15 million increase, mostly to provide increased subsidies for people who adopt children in state custody.
Andrea Sanders, CPS commissioner, said Mississippi pays less – by about half — to families who adopt children from custody than it does to foster parents. Sanders says this incentivizes people to stay in the foster program rather than adopt children.
Sanders said that the federal government will match, at nearly one-to-one, the state funded subsidies for adoption.
“State agencies will always be a poor substitute for a family,” Sanders said.
This article first appeared on Mississippi Today and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
Mississippi News
On/off weekend rain
SUMMARY: The weather in Columbus, Mississippi is expected to have scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s at night and low to middle 80s during the day. There is a chance of showers during the Starkville Derby weenie dog race, with cloudy conditions and breaks of sun. Temperatures will continue to rise into the upper 80s and potentially lower 90s next week with on and off rain. Overnight lows will remain mild in the low 60s to low 70s. Stay prepared for rain with rain gear as showers and storms are expected.
The post On/off weekend rain appeared first on www.wcbi.com
Mississippi News
Jackson pastor concerned about sinkhole near bridge
SUMMARY: The pastor of Cornerstone Missionary Baptist Church in Jackson is calling for the condemnation of a bridge on Martin Luther King Boulevard near his church due to safety concerns. The bridge has been a problem for nearly a decade, with a large sinkhole recently appearing. The pastor is advocating for the city to take action, as the bridge has already been the site of a fatal accident and lacks guardrails. While repairs are being made, the pastor believes the street should be shut down to prevent further accidents. The City of Jackson has not responded to inquiries about the issue.
The post Jackson pastor concerned about sinkhole near bridge appeared first on www.wjtv.com
Mississippi News
Shopping trips ends with shoplifting charges for Lee County women
SUMMARY: Two Lee County women, Marie Thomas and Brandy Allred, were arrested in Tupelo for a substantial shoplifting case where they took over $1,000 worth of merchandise. Thomas was charged with felony shoplifting and her bond was set at $5,000, while Allred was also identified as a suspect in two grand larceny cases and was charged with felony shoplifting and two counts of grand larceny, with a bond set at $50,000. The incident occurred in February at a business on South Green Street in Tupelo. Follow WCBI on Facebook for continuous news updates.
The post Shopping trips ends with shoplifting charges for Lee County women appeared first on www.wcbi.com
-
Mississippi Today6 days ago
On this day in 1951
-
SuperTalk FM1 day ago
Driver’s education set to become mandatory in Mississippi as bill passes
-
SuperTalk FM4 days ago
Festival merger in Leland sets up one major event for Mississippi Delta
-
Mississippi News7 days ago
One injured in Mississippi officer-involved shooting after chase
-
Mississippi Business3 days ago
Geartek expanding operations in Alcorn County
-
SuperTalk FM5 days ago
PERS bill set to phase in employer rate increase heads to governor’s desk
-
Mississippi News4 days ago
Two women accused of shoplifting across southeast captured in Mississippi
-
Mississippi News2 days ago
Altercation at Mississippi police department leads to officer-involved shooting