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Why the price of your favorite chocolate will continue to rise

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theconversation.com – Narcisa Pricope, Professor of Geography and Land Systems Science and Associate Vice President for Research, Mississippi State University – 2025-02-10 07:44:00

Why the price of your favorite chocolate will continue to rise

Chocolate prices spiked amid very dry conditions in Africa.
Chuck Fishman/Getty Images

Narcisa Pricope, Mississippi State University

Valentine’s Day often conjures images of chocolates and romance. But the crop behind this indulgence faces an existential threat.

Regions like northeastern Brazil, one of the world’s notable cocoa-producing areas, are grappling with increasing aridity – a slow, yet unrelenting drying of the land. Cocoa is made from the beans of the cacao tree, which thrives in humid climates. The crop is struggling in these drying regions, and so are the farmers who grow it.

This is not just Brazil’s story. Across West Africa, where 70% of the world’s cacao is grown, and in the Americas and Southeast Asia, shifting moisture levels threaten the delicate balance required for production. These regions, home to vibrant ecosystems and global breadbaskets that feed the world, are on the frontlines of aridity’s slow but relentless advance.

A man in a baseball cap reaches for a large pod on a tree.
A farmer in Colombia holds a cacao pod, which holds the key ingredients for chocolate.
©2017CIAT/NeilPalmer, CC BY-NC-SA

Over the past 30 years, more than three-quarters of the Earth’s landmass has become drier. A recent report I helped coordinate for the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification found that drylands now cover 41% of global land, an area that expanded by nearly 1.7 million square miles (4.3 million square kilometers) over those three decades — about half the size of Australia.

This creeping dryness is not just a climate phenomenon. It’s a long-term transformation that may be irreversible and that carries devastating consequences for ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods worldwide.

What causes aridity?

Aridity, while often thought of as purely a climate phenomenon, is the result of a complex interplay among human-driven factors. These include greenhouse gas emissions, land use practices and the degradation of critical natural resources, such as soil and biodiversity.

These interconnected forces have been accelerating the transformation of once-productive landscapes into increasingly arid regions, with consequences that ripple across ecosystems and economies.

Greenhouse gas emissions: A global catalyst

Human-induced climate change is the primary driver of rising aridity.

Greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, increase global temperatures. Rising temperatures, in turn, cause moisture to evaporate at a faster rate. This heightened evaporation reduces soil and plant moisture, exacerbating water scarcity – even in regions with moderate rainfall.

Aridity began accelerating globally in the 1950s, and the world has seen a pronounced shift over the past three decades.

This process is particularly stark in regions already prone to dryness, such as Africa’s Sahel region and the Mediterranean. In these areas, reduced precipitation – combined with increased evaporation – creates a feedback loop: Drier soils absorb less heat, leaving the atmosphere warmer and intensifying arid conditions.

Charts show dryness in recent years and increasing populations in dry areas.
The number of people living in dryland regions has been rising in each region in recent years. Years 1971-2020. Scales vary.
UNCCD

Unsustainable land use practices: A hidden accelerator

Aridity is also affected by how people use and manage land.

Unsustainable agricultural practices, overgrazing and deforestation strip soils of their protective vegetation cover, leaving them vulnerable to erosion. Industrial farming techniques often prioritize short-term yields over long-term sustainability, depleting nutrients and organic matter essential for healthy soils.

For example, in cocoa-producing regions like northeastern Brazil, deforestation to make room for agriculture disrupts local water cycles and exposes soils to degradation. Without vegetation to anchor it, topsoil – critical for plant growth – washes away during rainfall or is blown away by winds, taking with it vital nutrients.

These changes create a vicious cycle: Degraded soils also hold less water and lead to more runoff, reducing the land’s ability to recover.

A woman holds two vegetables in her hands while standing in a dry, sparsely populated field with small houses in the distance.
Aridity can affect the ability to grow many crops. Large parts of the country of Chad, shown here, have drying lands.
United Nations Chad, CC BY-NC-SA

The soil-biodiversity connection

Soil, often overlooked in discussions of climate resilience, plays a critical role in mitigating aridity.

Healthy soils act as reservoirs, storing water and nutrients that plants depend on. They also support biodiversity below and above ground. A single teaspoon of soil contains billions of microorganisms that help cycle nutrients and maintain ecological balance.

However, as soils degrade under aridity and mismanagement, this biodiversity diminishes. Microbial communities, essential for nutrient cycling and plant health, decline. When soils become compacted and lose organic matter, the land’s ability to retain water diminishes, making it even more susceptible to drying out.

In short, the loss of soil health creates cascading effects that undermine ecosystems, agricultural productivity and food security.

Global hot spots: Looming food security crises

Cocoa is just one crop affected by the encroachment of rising aridity.

Other key agricultural zones, including the breadbaskets of the world, are also at risk. In the Mediterranean, Africa’s Sahel and parts of the U.S. West, aridity already undermines farming and biodiversity.

By 2100, up to 5 billion people could live in drylands – nearly double the current population in these areas, due to both population growth and expansion of drylands as the planet warms. This puts immense pressure on food systems. It can also accelerate migration as declining agricultural productivity, water scarcity and worsening living conditions force rural populations to move in search of opportunities.

A map shows large dry areas across the western U.S., Africa, Australia, Asia and parts of South America.
A map shows average aridity for 1981-2010. Computer simulations estimate that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities caused a 1.2% larger increase in the four types of dry regions combined for the periods between 1850 and 1981–2010 than simulations with only solar and volcanic effects considered.
UNCCD

Aridity’s ripple effects also extend far beyond agriculture. Ecosystems, already strained by deforestation and pollution, are stressed as water resources dwindle. Wildlife migrates or dies, and plant species adapted to moister conditions can’t survive. The Sahel’s delicate grasslands, for instance, are rapidly giving way to desert shrubs.

On a global scale, economic losses linked to aridification are staggering. In Africa, rising aridity contributed to a 12% drop in gross domestic product from 1990 to 2015. Sandstorms and dust storms, wildfires and water scarcity further burden governments, exacerbating poverty and health crises in the most affected regions.

The path forward

Aridity is not inevitable, nor are its effects completely irreversible. But coordinated global efforts are essential to curb its progression.

Countries can work together to restore degraded lands by protecting and restoring ecosystems, improving soil health and encouraging sustainable farming methods.

Communities can manage water more efficiently through rainwater harvesting and advanced irrigation systems that optimize water use. Governments can reduce the drivers of climate change by investing in renewable energy.

Continued international collaboration, including working with businesses, can help share technologies to make these actions more effective and available worldwide.

So, as you savor chocolate this Valentine’s Day, remember the fragile ecosystems behind it. The price of cocoa in early 2025 was near its all-time high, due in part to dry conditions in Africa. Without urgent action to address aridity, this scenario may become more common, and cocoa – and the sweet concoctions derived from it – may well become a rare luxury.

Collective action against aridity isn’t just about saving chocolate – it’s about preserving the planet’s capacity to sustain life.The Conversation

Narcisa Pricope, Professor of Geography and Land Systems Science and Associate Vice President for Research, Mississippi State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Rethinking repression − why memory researchers reject the idea of recovered memories of trauma

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theconversation.com – Gabrielle Principe, Professor of Psychology, College of Charleston – 2025-03-24 07:52:00

Memories and photos both can misrepresent the past.
Westend61 via Getty Images

Gabrielle Principe, College of Charleston

In 1990, George Franklin was convicted of murder and sentenced to life in prison based on the testimony of his 28-year-old daughter Eileen. She described seeing him rape her best friend and then smash her skull with a rock.

When Eileen testified at her father’s trial, her memory of the murder was relatively fresh. It was less than a year old. Yet the murder happened 20 years earlier, when she was 8 years old.

How can you have a one-year-old memory of something that happened 20 years ago? According to the prosecution, Eileen repressed her memory of the murder. Then much later she recovered it in complete detail.

Can a memory of something so harrowing disappear for two decades and then resurface in a reliable form?

This case launched a huge debate between memory researchers like me who argue there is no credible scientific evidence that repressed memories exist and practicing clinicians who claim that repressed memories are real.

This controversy is not merely an academic one. Real people’s lives have been shattered by newly recollected traumatic experiences from childhood. I’ve seen this firsthand as a memory expert who consults on legal cases involving defendants accused of crimes they allegedly committed years or even decades ago. Often the only evidence linking the defendant to the crime is a recovered memory.

But the scientific community disagrees about the existence of the phenomenon of repressed memory.

Freud was the father of repression

Nineteenth-century psychoanalytic theorist Sigmund Freud developed the concept of repression. He considered it a defense mechanism people use to protect themselves from traumatic experiences that become too overwhelming.

The idea is that repression buries memories of trauma in your unconscious, where they – unlike other memories – reside unknown to you. They remain hidden, in a pristine, fixed form.

In Freud’s view, repressed memories make themselves known by leaking out in mental and physical symptoms – symptoms that can be relieved only through recovering the traumatic memory in a safe psychological environment.

In the 1980s, increasing numbers of therapists became concerned about the prevalence of child sexual abuse and the historical tendencies to dismiss or hide the maltreatment of children. This shift gave new life to the concept of repression.

Rise of repressed memory recovery

Therapists in this camp told clients that their symptoms, such as anxiety, depression or eating disorders, were the result of repressed memories of childhood sexual abuse that needed to be remembered to heal. To recover these memories, therapists used a range of techniques such as hypnosis, suggestive questioning, repeated imagining, bodywork and group sessions.

Did recovered-memory therapy work? Many people who entered therapy for common mental health issues did come out with new and unexpected memories of childhood sexual abuse and other trauma, without physical evidence or corroboration from others.

But were these memories real?

The notion of repressed memories runs counter to decades of scientific evidence demonstrating that traumatic events tend to be very well remembered over long intervals of time. Many victims of documented trauma, ranging from the Holocaust to combat exposure, torture and natural disasters, do not appear to be able to block out their memories.

In fact, trauma sometimes is too well remembered, as in the case of post-traumatic stress disorder. Recurrent and intrusive traumatic memories are a core symptom of PTSD.

No memory ≠ repressed memory

There are times when victims of trauma may not remember what happened. But this doesn’t necessarily mean the memory has been repressed. There are a range of alternative explanations for not remembering traumatic experiences.

Trauma, like anything you experience, can be forgotten as the result of memory decay. Details fade with time, and retrieving the right remnants of experience becomes increasingly difficult if not impossible.

Someone might make the deliberate choice to not think about upsetting events. Psychologists call this motivated forgetting or suppression.

There also are biological causes of forgetting such as brain injury and substance abuse.

Trauma also can interfere with the making of a memory in the first place. When stress becomes too big or too prolonged, attention can shift from the experience itself to attempts to regulate emotion, endure what’s happening or even survive. This narrow focus can result in little to no memory of what happened.

blank photo atop a stack of old black and white pictures
A forgotten memory isn’t just waiting around to be rediscovered – it’s gone.
malerapaso/E+ via Getty Images

False memories

If science rejects the notion of repressed memories, there’s still one question to confront: Where do newly recollected trauma memories, such as those triggered in recovered-memory therapy, come from?

All memories are subject to distortions when you mistakenly incorporate expectations, assumptions or information from others that was not part of the original event.

Memory researchers contend that memory recovery techniques might actually create false memories of things that never happened rather than resurrect existing memories of real experiences.

To study this possibility, researchers asked participants to elaborate on events that never happened using the same sorts of suggestive questioning techniques used by recovered-memory therapists.

What they found was startling. They were able to induce richly detailed false memories of a wide range of childhood traumatic experiences, such as choking, hospitalization and being a victim of a serious animal attack, in almost one-third of participants.

These researchers were intentionally planting false memories. But I don’t think intention would be necessary on the part of a sympathetic therapist working with a suffering client.

Are the memory wars over?

The belief in repressed memories remains well entrenched among the general public and mental health professionals. More than half believe that traumatic experiences can become repressed in the unconscious, where they lurk, waiting to be uncovered.

This remains the case even though in his later work, Freud revised his original concept of repression to argue that it doesn’t work on actual memories of experiences, but rather involves the inhibition of certain impulses, desires and fantasies. This revision rarely makes it into popular conceptions of repression.

As evidence of the current widespread belief in repressed memories, in the past few years several U.S. states and European countries have extended or abolished the statute of limitations for the prosecution of sexual crimes, which allows for testimony based on allegedly recovered memories of long-ago crimes.

Given the ease with which researchers can create false childhood memories, one of the unforeseen consequences of these changes is that falsely recovered memories of abuse might find their way into court – potentially leading to unfounded accusations and wrongful convictions.The Conversation

Gabrielle Principe, Professor of Psychology, College of Charleston

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How many types of insects are there in the world?

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theconversation.com – Nicholas Green, Assistant Professor of Biology, Kennesaw State University – 2025-03-24 07:48:00

This is a close-up photo of an ordinary garden fly.
Amith Nag Photography/Moment via Getty Images

Nicholas Green, Kennesaw State University

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


How many types of insects are there in the world? – Sawyer, age 8, Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina


Exploring anywhere on Earth, look closely and you’ll find insects. Check your backyard and you may see ants, beetles, crickets, wasps, mosquitoes and more. There are more kinds of insects than there are mammals, birds and plants combined. This fact has fascinated scientists for centuries.

One of the things biologists like me do is classify all living things into categories. Insects belong to a phylum called Arthropoda – animals with hard exoskeletons and jointed feet.

All insects are arthropods, but not all arthropods are insects. For instance, spiders, lobsters and millipedes are arthropods, but they’re not insects.

Instead, insects are a subgroup within Arthropoda, a class called “Insecta,” that is characterized by six legs, two antennae and three body segments – head, abdomen and the thorax, which is the part of the body between the head and abdomen.

A diagram of an ant, pointing out various body parts, including the antennae, thorax and legs.
The mandibles of the ants are its jaws; the petiole is the ant’s waist.
Vector Mine/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Most insects also have wings, although a few, like fleas, don’t. All have compound eyes, which means insects see very differently from the way people see. Instead of one lens per eye, they have many: a fly has 5,000 lenses; a dragonfly has 30,000. These types of eyes, though not great for clarity, are excellent at detecting movement.

What is a species?

All insects descend from a common ancestor that lived about about 480 million years ago. For context, that’s about 100 million years before any of our vertebrate ancestors – animals with a backbone – ever walked on land.

A species is the most basic unit that biologists use to classify living things. When people use words like “ant” or “fly” or “butterfly” they are referring not to species, but to categories that may contain hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of species. For example, about 18,000 species of butterfly exist – think monarch, zebra swallowtail or cabbage white.

Basically, species are a group that can interbreed with each other, but not with other groups. One obvious example: bees can’t interbreed with ants.

But brown-belted bumblebees and red-belted bumblebees can’t interbreed either, so they are different species of bumblebee.

Each species has a unique scientific name – like Bombus griseocollis for the brown-belted bumblebee – so scientists can be sure which species they’re talking about.

This close-up of a dragonfly reveals its blue head, bulging compound eyes and black antennae.
This is what a dragonfly looks like up close.
Dieter Meyrl/E+ via Getty Images

Quadrillions of ants

Counting the exact number of insect species is probably impossible. Every year, some species go extinct, while some evolve anew. Even if we could magically freeze time and survey the entire Earth all at once, experts would disagree on the distinctiveness or identity of some species. So instead of counting, researchers use statistical analysis to make an estimate.

One scientist did just that. He published his answer in a 2018 research paper. His calculations showed there are approximately 5.5 million insect species, with the correct number almost certainly between 2.6 and 7.2 million.

Beetles alone account for almost one-third of the number, about 1.5 million species. By comparison, there are “only” an estimated 22,000 species of ants. This and other studies have also estimated about 3,500 species of mosquitoes, 120,000 species of flies and 30,000 species of grasshoppers and crickets.

The estimate of 5.5 million species of insects is interesting. What’s even more remarkable is that because scientists have found only about 1 million species, that means more than 4.5 million species are still waiting for someone to discover them. In other words, over 80% of the Earth’s insect biodiversity is still unknown.

Add up the total population and biomass of the insects, and the numbers are even more staggering. The 22,000 species of ants comprise about 20,000,000,000,000,000 individuals – that’s 20 quadrillion ants. And if a typical ant weighs about 0.0001 ounces (3 milligrams) – or one ten-thousandth of an ounce – that means all the ants on Earth together weigh more than 132 billion pounds (about 60 billion kilograms).

That’s the equivalent of about 7 million school buses, 600 aircraft carriers or about 20% of the weight of all humans on Earth combined.

YouTube video
For every person on Earth, it’s estimated there are 200 million insects.

Many insect species are going extinct

All of this has potentially huge implications for our own human species. Insects affect us in countless ways. People depend on them for crop pollination, industrial products and medicine. Other insects can harm us by transmitting disease or eating our crops.

Most insects have little to no direct impact on people, but they are integral parts of their ecosystems. This is why entomologists – bug scientists – say we should leave insects alone as much as possible. Most of them are harmless to people, and they are critical to the environment.

It is sobering to note that although millions of undiscovered insect species may be out there, many will go extinct before people have a chance to discover them. Largely due to human activity, a significant proportion of Earth’s biodiversity – including insects – may ultimately be forever lost.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.The Conversation

Nicholas Green, Assistant Professor of Biology, Kennesaw State University

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Genomic sequencing reveals previously unknown genes that make microbes resistant to drugs and hard to kill

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theconversation.com – Nneka Vivian Iduu, Graduate Research Assistant in Pathobiology, Auburn University – 2025-03-24 07:48:00

Nneka Vivian Iduu, Auburn University

In the 20th century, when a routine infection was treated with a standard antibiotic, recovery was expected. But over time, the microbes responsible for these infections have evolved to evade the very drugs designed to eliminate them.

Each year, there are more than 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections in the United States, leading to over 35,000 deaths and US$4.6 billion in health care costs. As antibiotics become less effective, antimicrobial resistance poses an increasing threat to public health.

Antimicrobial resistance began to emerge as a serious threat in the 1940s with the rise of penicillin resistance. By the 1990s, it had escalated into a global concern. Decades later, critical questions still remain: How does antimicrobial resistance emerge, and how can scientists track the hidden changes leading to it? Why does resistance in some microbes remain undetected until an outbreak occurs? Filling these knowledge gaps is crucial to preventing future outbreaks, improving treatment outcomes and saving lives.

YouTube video
Antimicrobial resistance can be deadly.

Over the years, my work as a microbiologist and biomedical scientist has focused on investigating the genetics of infectious microbes. My colleagues and I identified a resistance gene previously undetected in the U.S. using genetic and computational methods that can help improve how scientists detect and track antimicrobial resistance.

Challenges of detecting resistance

Antimicrobial resistance is a natural process where microbes constantly evolve as a defense mechanism, acquiring genetic changes that enhance their survival.

Unfortunately, human activities can speed up this process. The overuse and misuse of antibiotics in health care, farming and the environment push bacteria to genetically change in ways that allow them to survive the drugs meant to kill them.

Early detection of antimicrobial resistance is crucial for effective treatment. Surveillance typically begins with a laboratory sample obtained from patients with suspected infections, which is then analyzed to identify potential antimicrobial resistance. Traditionally, this has been done using culture-based methods that involve exposing microbes to antibiotics in the lab and observing whether they survived to determine whether they were becoming resistant. Along with helping authorities and researchers monitor the spread of antimicrobial resistance, hospitals use this approach to decide on treatment plans.

However, culture-based approaches have some limitations. Resistant infections often go unnoticed until antibiotics fail, making both detection and intervention processes slow. Additionally, new resistance genes may escape detection altogether.

Genomics of antimicrobial resistance

To overcome these challenges, researchers have integrated genomic sequencing into antimicrobial resistance surveillance. Through whole-genome sequencing, we can analyze all the DNA in a microbial sample to get a comprehensive view of all the genes present – including those responsible for resistance. With the computational tools of bioinformatics, researchers can efficiently process vast amounts of genetic data to improve the detection of resistance threats.

Despite its advantages, integrating genomic sequencing into antimicrobial resistance monitoring presents some challenges of its own. High costs, quality assurance and a shortage of trained bioinformaticians make implementation difficult. Additionally, the complexity of interpreting genomic data may limit its use in clinical and public health decision-making.

Computer readout of rows of lines that peak at different heights at each G, T, A or C
Bioinformatics allows researchers to analyze large biological datasets.
hh5800/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Establishing international standards could help make whole-genome sequencing and bioinformatics a fully reliable tool for resistance surveillance. The World Health Organization recommends laboratories follow strict quality control measures to ensure accurate and comparable results. This includes using reliable, user-friendly computational tools and shared microbial databases. Additional strategies include investing in training programs and fostering collaborations between hospitals, research labs and universities.

Discovering a resistance gene

Combining whole genome sequencing and bioinformatics, my colleagues and I analyzed Salmonella samples collected from several animal species between 1982 and 1999. We discovered a Salmonella resistance gene called blaSCO-1 that has evaded detection in U.S. livestock for decades.

The blaSCO-1 gene confers resistance to microbes against several critical antibiotics, including ampicillin, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and, to some extent, cephalosporins and carbapenems. These medications are crucial for treating infections in both humans and animals.

Microscopy image of two orange rods embedded in an irregularly shaped blue surface
Salmonella Typhimurium invading a cell.
NIAID/Flickr, CC BY-SA

The blaSCO-1 gene likely remained unreported because routine surveillance usually targets well-known resistance genes and it has overlapping functions with other genes. Gaps in bioinformatics expertise may have also hindered its identification.

The failure to detect genes like blaSCO-1 raises concern about its potential role in past treatment failures. Between 2015 and 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began implementing whole-genome sequencing for routine surveillance of Salmonella. Studies conducted during this period found that 77% of multistate outbreaks were linked to livestock harboring resistant Salmonella.

These missed genes have significant implications for both food safety and public health. Undetected antimicrobial resistance genes can spread through food animals, contaminated food products, processing environments and agricultural runoff, allowing resistant bacteria to persist and reach humans. These resistant bacteria lead to infections that are harder to treat and increase the risk of outbreaks. Moreover, the global movement of people, livestock and goods means that these resistant strains can easily cross borders, turning local outbreaks into worldwide health threats.

Identifying new resistance genes not only fills a critical knowledge gap, but it also demonstrates how genomic and computational approaches can help detect hidden resistance mechanisms before they pose widespread threats.

Strengthening surveillance

As antimicrobial resistance continues to rise, adopting a One Health approach that integrates human, animal and environmental factors can help ensure that emerging resistance does not outpace humans’ ability to combat it.

Initiatives like the Quadripartite AMR Multi-Partner Trust Fund provide support for programs that strengthen global collaborative surveillance, promote responsible antimicrobial use and drive the development of sustainable alternatives. Ensuring researchers around the world follow common research standards will allow more labs – especially those in low- and middle-income countries – to contribute to global surveillance efforts.

The health of future generations depends on the world’s ability to ensure food safety and protect public health on a global scale. In the ongoing battle between microbial evolution and human innovation, vigilance and adaptability are key to staying ahead.The Conversation

Nneka Vivian Iduu, Graduate Research Assistant in Pathobiology, Auburn University

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