SUMMARY: Meteorologist Grant Skinner reports a medium chance of tropical development in the Atlantic, but it poses no threat to the Gulf Coast. Attention is focused on an area in the Gulf of Mexico, where the chance of development is 40% in 48 hours and 80% in the next week. Impacts are likely along highlighted areas in orange by the end of the work week, with potential for the system to be named Helen. While current weather is warm and calm, residents should prepare their tropical weather plans. Temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with rain chances increasing later in the week.

It was another very warm day as an upper-level ridge is parked over the area bringing high pressure at the surface. High pressure has kept us dry and will keep us dry for Monday as well. Overnight, temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees with mid- to upper-70’s at the coast. Monday will bring a rain chance near zero and highs back in the low- to mid-90’s. Skies will stay mostly clear with some extra clouds by the afternoon with the sea breeze. As southwesterly flow increases aloft into Tuesday and the middle of the week, moisture will increase allowing for more chances for isolated showers and storms. Highs will drop into the upper-80’s Wednesday and low-80’s by Thursday. A front will also be to our north and west by Thursday and will pass through part of the area late Thursday into Friday. This could keep the tropical system to our east, but ultimately, the back half of the work week will likely be determined by where the tropical development moves. By late Friday and into Saturday, we will see drier conditions with highs in the mid-80’s. In the tropics we are tracking two areas. One of them is in the central tropical Atlantic and will likely develop over the next several days as it has a medium chance for formation. It does not pose a threat to the News 5 area. Another is in the northwestern Caribbean and in the southern Gulf. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in part of the western Caribbean or in the southern Gulf the early/middle part of this week. It is uncertain where exactly it will develop, how strong it will get, and the exact track. Once the center of circulation begins to develop, we will have a better idea of where this system will move. For now, make sure you have a tropical plan and stay updated with all the latest here on WKRG.

The WKRG News 5 First Alert Storm Team covers part of southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama, and northwest Florida. You can also view the full Sunday evening forecast for the Gulf Coast here: https://tinyurl.com/5dp9smer
Follow Meteorologist Grant Skinner on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wkrggrant

Source