Today’s round of questions, my smart-aleck replies and the real answers:

Question: I’ve noticed that the new Carolina Day soccer field and their grass field are always locked. It doesn’t seem to be available to the public, even though it was my understanding that it was a joint effort: Carolina Day plus Asheville Parks & Rec to renovate. Is there any plan or timeline on when the public will be able to use the field(s)? Or will there be a reservation portal to book field space? Very curious, because it’s really the only viable field space in this part of town for pickup sports to happen.

My answer: Let’s not forget that huge parking lot in the Ingles shopping center in south Asheville. About half of that rascal never gets used, and it’s relatively flat. The pavement burns are not fun for the kids, but it teaches toughness.

Real answer: It looks like the joint effort will not be happening.

“While we recognize there’s strong community interest in access to field space in South Asheville, there is currently no agreement in place between Carolina Day School and the city for public use of the Sgro Athletic Complex,” Sarah Goldstein, director of marketing and communications at Carolina Day School, told me via email. “At this time, Carolina Day School and the city have mutually agreed not to pursue a shared-use agreement for the Sgro Athletic Complex.”

The shared understanding, Goldstein said, is that the complex “will continue to serve the needs of Carolina Day School student-athletes and school programs, while the city focuses on developing its own recreational resources to meet broader community needs.”

Goldstein did note that various club sports have been using the field.

“Following Hurricane Helene, Carolina Day School did extend use of the Sgro Athletic Complex to local club soccer organizations whose fields were damaged, recognizing the importance of supporting the broader community during a time of need,” Goldstein said. “However, these hosted uses were by special arrangement, and the field remains secured when not in active use.”

The City of Asheville also said it’s not involved in the school’s soccer complex.

“The City of Asheville, including Asheville Parks & Recreation, was not involved in the funding or construction of the new soccer field at Carolina Day School,” city spokesperson Kim Miller said via email. “The project was undertaken by the school itself. As such, any decisions regarding public access, reservations, or a usage timeline for the field are at the discretion of Carolina Day School.”

I wrote about the soccer field issue in July 2024, and at that time, Miller said Parks & Rec had discussed a potential facility management agreement with the school, “allowing secondary use of the complex once the project is complete for additional athletic recreation programming and expanded access to neighborhoods in South Asheville when not in use by the school.”

But that obviously did not come to fruition.

In 2021, the city did buy 10.88 acres of undeveloped property from Carolina Day School adjacent to Sgro Complex for $1.5 million, using bond money from a 2016 general obligation bond referendum voters had approved. Parks & Rec announced then that future property enhancements “may include parking and passive recreation amenities such as trails and areas for picnicking, bird watching, and nature bathing,” Miller said then, noting the property already has some hiking paths that connect to the nearby Blue Ridge Parkway and Mountains-to-Sea Trail.

The Sgro complex, just south of the Parkway, includes Carolina Day School’s athletic fields.

Miller said Monday that the city’s plan for a Sweeten Creek Road Park is still in the works. 

“It’s one element included in the Recreate Asheville: Shaping Our City’s Parks planning,” Miller said. “Post-Helene, we continue to explore design and timelines for our shared outdoor spaces.”

In the document, the Sweeten Creek Road Park is listed under “Phase 1 projects (short-term, 1 to 4 years).”

Question: What percentage of Asheville/Buncombe residents are relatively homegrown versus those who chose to move here? Maybe a government office has a way to answer that. For example: How many of the current area residents also lived in the area 20 years ago?

My answer: I’m just taking a shot here, but I’m going to say 99.5 percent of folks living here moved in from Florida. Hey, it’s hot down there, almost like a swamp. I don’t fault them.

Real answer: This is a tricky, if not nigh impossible one to get a great answer on.

I can offer a couple of anecdotal observations. When I speak to local groups, I usually ask how many people have moved here over the last five or 10 years, and how many are Buncombe County natives. Usually, the vast majority have moved here, and just one or two usually raise their hands as natives, and that’s typically in groups of 50 or more.

And there’s the pickleball factor. Back when my body allowed me to play p-ball, I’d chat up the other players to see where they’re from. Out of dozens of folks over a couple of years, I think two were from here originally, and most had moved in recently, as in the last few years.

But now, let’s move on to people who actually know things, like Tom Tveidt, founder of Syneva Economics, which studies all manner of economic and demographic interests.

“This sounds like one of those ‘easy’ questions, which in fact is probably not,” Tveidt told me via email. 

In short, Tveidt says, “It gets messy.”

Here’s why:

“This seemingly simple question is impossible to precisely answer because, first, the Census Bureau does not track it, and second, populations are incredibly dynamic (which is probably why the Bureau wisely chose not to track this),” Tveidt said.

He noted that the Census Bureau does track place of birth by state and outside the United States.

“In 2023, 47 percent of Buncombe County’s residents reported having been born in North Carolina, 45 percent born in another state, and the remaining 8 percent born outside the United States,” Tveidt said. “Ten years earlier it was 53 percent born in North Carolina, 41 percent in another state, and 7 percent outside the United States.”

Buncombe County historically has not grown because of a burgeoning birth rate.

“We do know that for decades, Buncombe’s net population gains have been driven entirely by in-migration — that is, the resident population is shrinking because resident deaths outpace resident births,” Tveidt said. “Yet at the same time, more new residents are moving in to make up the difference, and then some.”

Tveidt said the latest Census estimates confirm the trend.

“Between 2020 and 2024 a net of 12,282 people migrated into the county,” Tveidt said. “At the same time, the resident population declined by 2,615 because resident deaths of 12,850 were greater than the 10,235 resident births. Sum it up and you get a net gain of 9,667 in the county, with all of that net gain coming from outsiders moving in.”

It’s important to remember that these numbers are net, “meaning they represent the sum measured at a point in time and don’t capture all the in-and-out activity happening within each year,” Tveidt added.

“Then the question of who and how many people are native to Buncombe is a bit messy,” Tveidt continued. “Some native residents have moved out, some have moved out and returned. And some new arriving residents have given birth and added to the native population.”

In a nutshell, we know the native population has been declining, but it’s about impossible to parse exactly where it stands because of our population and demographic trends. Buncombe County is home to about 280,000 people, with in-migration driving the engine.

“Because Buncombe has been experiencing this population dynamic for at least the last 20 years, it’s safe to say true natives (born and raised in Buncombe) are making up a smaller portion of the total population over time,” Tveidt said. “We’re just not sure how small that portion is.”

Our growth has been steady and strong for decades. In 2020, the Census pegged Buncombe’s population at 269,452, “an increase of more than 67 percent from 1980,” according to the county’s “Our People” web page.

Nathan Ramsey, a Buncombe County native, is the director of the Mountain Area Workforce Development Board with the Land of Sky Regional Council, which serves Buncombe, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania Counties. He said he defers to Tveidt on the numbers.

“From a macro perspective, all of our region’s population is due to in-migration,” Ramsey said. “At one time Buncombe’s births did outnumber deaths but I think all counties in western North Carolina are net declining in population without net immigration.”

If anyone out there can dig up any more insights on all of this, I’m happy to run a followup.

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Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. Got a question? Send it to John Boyle at jboyle@avlwatchdog.org or 828-337-0941. His Answer Man columns appear each Tuesday and Friday. The Watchdog’s reporting is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.

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