The first of political blogger Chris Hinkle’s countdown to Thom Tillis’s defeat came into my social media feed on May 16. It read simply: “Today is May 16, 2025 and @SenThomTillis has 476 days left until he is voted out of office.” 

The second message predicting the exact timing of the North Carolina Republican senator’s defeat came on May 17. Same words, one day less. Then a third on May 18, a fourth on May 19, and on and on to the present, like the proverbial water torture transported to X. 

Although the general election is 17 months away and Hinkle’s math was a little shaky – it’s actually 517 days today – a post like this wouldn’t be noteworthy were Hinkle a Democrat trolling one of that party’s biggest targets in the 2026 mid-term election.

But it emphatically is. I tracked Hinkle to his home in Mississippi where he retired as an FBI special agent and took up blogging, public speaking and trolling politicians he deems less than devoted to the principles of MAGA and its leader, Donald Trump.  

In Hinkle’s world, Tillis is high among these lightly devoted adherents and thus worthy of daily bashing. What I find both remarkable and disturbing is the vitriolic reaction that something as benign as Hinkle’s countdown ignites on a daily basis, some of it cheeky, though much of it ominous and disturbing.  

“Traitor” is one word that comes up regularly in reference to Tillis. “Horrible for our state,” writes another amid threats I won’t repeat, while one more pledges “we will NEVER vote for Thom Tillis again. EVER.” Earlier this year, Tillis’s office released a sampling of the most vicious attacks, one threatening to cut the senator’s throat and another warning that he avoid going out in public because “we hate you … and you are going to fail.” 

What becomes apparent upon reviewing as many of these comments as I can stomach is that the overwhelming majority come from people who identify online as patriots, MAGAs and America Firsters.  

To state the obvious, this is a problem for Tillis and for the Republican Party’s ability to hold on to the Senate, where it has a 53-47 edge, after next fall’s election. The North Carolina contest is regarded as one of five nationwide where the Republican incumbent is vulnerable – enough to swing control. 

In my experience, rarely have I seen an incumbent face such strong headwinds as Tillis faces and manage to win re-election. 

Survey: Tillis is “weak” and “partisan voice for Trump”

Among the numbers that tell the story: Twice as many voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Tillis as a favorable one, according to a Public Policy Polling survey in March. Just 21 percent of the 662 North Carolina voters surveyed said they characterize him as a “strong leader” while 51 percent describe him as “weak.”  

Another 42 percent see Tillis as a “partisan voice for Donald Trump,” though not in a positive way. Just 19 percent of Republicans said they regard Tillis as being on Trump’s side – a damning assessment, especially if Tillis faces a strong challenge for the Republican nomination by an overtly pro-Trump candidate. And that’s likely the case.  

Two challengers are already traveling the state GOP circuit, both tightly wrapped in Trump garments. Don Brown, a retired Navy lawyer and unsuccessful congressional candidate in 2024, is posting frequent YouTube videos calling his opponent “Swamp Thom.” Retired businessman Andy Nilsson will make another go for office (he lost in a prior Senate bid and for lieutenant governor); he, too, regards Tillis as insufficiently Trumpian. 

Whether either of these two will become serious contenders for the nomination is yet to be determined. 

But already a viable – though aspirational – threat is Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law (Eric’s wife), former co-chair of the Republican Party and a native North Carolinian. In a Carolina Journal poll last December, she was the favorite of 65 percent of the responders to Tillis’s humiliating 11 percent.  

What may save Tillis from actual humiliation in a primary next March is that Lara and Eric currently live in Florida in a multi-million house adjacent to the Trump golf course. But in addition to age and citizenship, North Carolina law requires only that a senator be a state resident on Election Day, which gives plenty of time to find new schools for the kids.      

Hinkle, the Republican blogger, told me in a phone interview that he believes the state’s GOP leadership won’t hesitate to dump Tillis if Lara Trump runs. The party leadership showed its disdain for Tillis in 2023 when it censured him for backing Biden administration bills supporting same-sex marriage, putting restrictions on gun sales and – most notably – condemning the January 6 insurrection to block Biden’s victory. 

Why Trump dislikes Tillis

Tillis recently questioned Trump’s tariff policies. He made news by asking a White House official, “Whose throat do I get to choke if this proves to be wrong?” 

And he joined a Democratic senator in sponsoring a bill that would elevate FEMA from a department under the Department of Homeland Security to a stand-alone agency reporting directly to the president – this when Trump was calling for FEMA to be abolished. Tillis’s decision to oppose Ed Martin, Trump’s nominee for U.S. attorney in Washington, D.C., was the final straw. The senator said Martin’s overt support for several January 6 rioters wouldn’t be tolerated, a position that yielded the “traitor” label on social media. 

Little wonder, Hinkle says that President Trump makes it known that he doesn’t like Tillis and will do whatever he can to recruit Lara Trump or find an alternative more likely to bend the knee.

I reached out to Tillis’s campaign manager, Abby Roesch, for comment, but she did not reply.

And then there are the Democrats.

 Axiom No. 1 in politics is that you can’t beat somebody with nobody. As I write this, the Democrats have one contender for the party’s nomination: former congressman Wiley Nickel, a one-termer with little statewide recognition.

But eyes are on former Gov. Roy Cooper who, Hamlet-like, has been keeping his own counsel while teaching at Harvard for the past year. But he has said he foresees a future role of some sort for himself and has promised an announcement as soon as this month. His party holds its breath.

Democrats yearn for Cooper

The two-term Democrat left office in January with favorability numbers far exceeding Tillis’s. 

The March survey by Public Policy Polling found 47 percent approval of Cooper’s job performance in office. By contrast, Tillis scored only a 26 percent approval.  

In a head-to-head match, Cooper would edge out Tillis by 47 to 43 percent, with each candidate collecting solid support from their party’s voters, according to the survey, which had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.8 points. And Cooper would win among independent voters – the state’s largest bloc – by 53 to 49 percent. 

Given Tillis’s problems in uniting his own party, to face a probable loss with the independents would be daunting at best.  

But here’s the tightrope the senator must walk: If he faces a strong primary challenge, he’ll be forced to turn more toward the MAGA side of the GOP.  Any victory would be pyrrhic in that this tactic would turn independent voters against him while energizing Democrats. 

Axiom No. 2 in politics is to expect the unexpected. Democrats should be reminded that their candidate in 2020, Cal Cunningham, was leading Tillis by similar margins at this time in that cycle. Then the unexpected: Cunningham was caught having an affair with a campaign consultant and his lead evaporated.  

This isn’t to suggest that Cooper might do something recklessly stupid, but it is to note that Tillis’s demise isn’t to be regarded as a foregone conclusion if the former governor jumps in. 

One other thing: As weak as the numbers may indicate for Tillis, he is a world-class fundraiser who retains a loyal base.

Among these is Shelia Surrett of Asheville, a member of Tillis’s leadership team since 2014. She told me she is confident Republican voters will rally around Tillis when they recognize that he is the only Republican capable of keeping the seat in Republican hands. Those who are attacking him from the far right are “too far out there. These people are a little dangerous and they have too much hatred,” she said.

Just 517 days.  

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Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. Tom Fiedler is a Pulitzer Prize-winning political reporter and dean emeritus from Boston University who lives in Asheville. Email him at tfiedler@avlwatchdog.org. The Watchdog’s reporting is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.

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