(The Center Square) – Though the economy and immigration were issues that helped President Donald Trump secure the White House, some economists have said that too steep a decline in immigration will prove harmful to the economy.

The Trump administration touted a statistic Monday reported by CNN the day before: The U.S. may see negative net migration in 2025, meaning more people will leave the country than move there. However, economists from both right- and left-leaning policy centers warn that too little immigration drags down GDP growth.

The center-right American Enterprise Institute recently authored a report with the center-left Brookings Institution projecting net migration would land between -525,000 and 115,000 in 2025, but with “zero or net negative migration” being the more likely outcome.

The report considered the president’s deportation efforts, as well as his broader immigration policy, predicting lower legal permanent resident entries than in his first term and factoring in greater vetting for temporary visas, a suspended refugee program, travel bans and terminated humanitarian parole programs.

“All told, given changes at the border and the regular migration system, we expect 2.47 million to 2.76 million fewer people to come to the U.S in 2025 than in 2024,” they wrote. And later, that they “expect around 675,000 to 1,020,000” more immigrants to leave the country than last year. 

They project these changes will reduce GDP growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points.

Chief Economist for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Gbenga Ajilore wasn’t surprised by the report’s findings. 

“While think tanks may have different ideologies, there are basic facts that a majority of economists believe in, and one is that immigration has a net positive impact on our economy and our communities,” Ajilore said in an email to The Center Square. 

Lower immigration means a smaller labor pool – which one might think translates to less people competing for the same amount of jobs, meaning more employment among American citizens. However, it actually means less jobs overall, according to David Bier, director of immigration studies at the libertarian Cato Institute.

“Yes, there are fewer competitors for jobs, but because there are fewer people requesting services and goods in society, then there’s a comparable shrinking in the number of jobs for U.S.-born workers as well,” Bier told The Center Square in an interview.

Giovanni Peri, a professor in international economics at the University of California, Davis, and the founder of the school’s research center on migration policy, along with a colleague, has studied some of the same data that was covered in the AEI-Brookings report. The report anticipates, as does Peri, some of the other negative economic impacts that can result from a smaller labor force. 

“We do not expect natives to take [jobs held by immigrants] as the labor market is already tight, especially in manual services… and the native labor force is shrinking,” Peri wrote in an email to The Center Square. “As a consequence, prices in those services will increase.” 

For these reasons, in addition to the loss of some highly skilled workers and lower investments, according to Peri, Peri and Georgetown Professor of Economics Anna Maria Mayda predicted an even greater impact on GDP growth of -0.7%.

Director of Immigration Law and Policy Research at the Economic Policy Institute Daniel Costa doubts that net migration will be negative in 2025 but thinks it will be soon. 

“I am skeptical that we will see negative net migration in the first year, just based on some of the legal immigration flows… which might take longer for the administration to impact,” Costa told The Center Square. “But I do think we will likely see it in the next years of the administration, especially after the major influx of $170 billion the administration has been gifted from Congress for immigration enforcement.”

The AEI-Brookings report authors believe net migration will start to recover some in 2027 and 2028, “as the adverse economic and political consequences of extreme policy stance become clear.” Bier was less optimistic.

“I wouldn’t think that because we have so much money going into ICE and Border Patrol and almost none of it has been spent at this point,” Bier said. “I think it’s more likely that you’re going to see an escalation over four years.”

(The Center Square) – In the first six months of the Trump administration, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in Houston arrested 356 illegal foreign nationals who are confirmed gang members.

Combined, they illegally entered the U.S. 1,434 times and were convicted of 1,685 criminal offenses, ICE said.

“Despite attempts by some to undermine the courageous work being done by our officers, the brave men and women of ICE continue to put their lives on the line every day to arrest violent transnational gang members, foreign fugitives and dangerous criminal aliens,” ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations-Houston acting Field Office Director Gabriel Martinez said. “In just the past couple of years in Houston, transnational gang members were responsible for brutally raping and murdering an innocent 12-year-old girl on her way to the store. Our officers know their efforts can help prevent atrocities like that from ever occurring again and they won’t rest until they’re all gone.”

Overall, ICE ERO-Houston officers arrested confirmed members of more than 40 gangs. The greatest number of gang arrests was 159 from the Paisas gang. The next greatest number was 39 confirmed MS-13 members and 25 Tren de Aragua members, which the Trump administration designated as foreign terrorist organizations. Other arrests were of confirmed Tango Blast, 15th Street Gang, Latin Kings and Surenos-13 gang members.

Of their combined 1,685 criminal convictions, offenses include abduction, homicide, sexual assault, sexual assault of a child, promotion of child pornography, aggravated assault, domestic violence, burglary, alien smuggling, sex trafficking, organized crime, drug trafficking, drug possession, arson, trespassing, unlawful possession of a firearm, illegal entry, illegal reentry, fraud, escape and evading arrest, ICE said.

Of the worst offenders arrested that ICE highlighted, all are men and citizens of El Salvador and Mexico.

One Mexican national and confirmed Surenos-13 gang member, Jonathan Morales-Abundis, 30, was arrested after illegally entering the U.S. 29 times, ICE said. His illegal entries total nearly his age. Despite that, he was only convicted three times for illegal reentry and once for alien smuggling and illegal entry.

Another arrested Surenos-13 gang member was Juan Manuel Cayetano-Vasquez, 48, who illegally entered the U.S. 13 times, ICE said. His convictions include six for drug possession and three for resisting arrest; twice each for domestic violence, assault and identity theft; and once each for false imprisonment, illegal entry, illegal reentry, battery and destroying evidence, ICE said.

An arrested Latin Kings member and Mexican national, Luis Alberto Hernandez, 46, illegally entered the U.S. three times. His rap sheet, according to ICE, includes four convictions for domestic violence, three for illegal reentry, twice for aggravated assault, and once each for drug trafficking, unlawful possession of a firearm, obstructing police, disorderly conduct, drug possession, interfering with a 911 emergency call and child abuse.

Salvadoran nationals arrested include Milton Alexander Magana Fuentes, 31, a child predator and Paisas gang member who illegally entered the U.S. four times, ICE said. His convictions include sexual indecency with a child, failure to register as a sex offender, illegal reentry and illegal entry.

Salvadoran MS-13 gang member arrests include Ronald Alberto Rivas-Aguilar, 28, who illegally entered twice and was convicted of homicide, and Jonathan Josue Valle-Moralez, 31, who was previously deported, ICE said. He was convicted of unlawful possession of a firearm and in March was transferred into U.S. Marshals’ custody to be prosecuted for homicide.

ICE highlighted arrests of Mexican nationals and confirmed Paisas gang members including Luis Fernando Nava-Garcia, 20, who ICE said illegally entered the U.S. 40 times, more than twice the number of years he’s been alive. Yet, he was only convicted twice for illegal reentry.

Other confirmed Paisas gang members arrested include Javier Ivan Montoya-Avila, 34, who illegally entered 26 times. His convictions include burglary, tampering with government records, criminal trespass, illegal reentry and illegal entry, ICE said; Humberto Romero Avila, 45, who illegally entered 10 times. He was deported to Mexico where he was wanted for homicide, ICE said. His convictions include four DWIs, larceny, illegal reentry and illegal entry.

Others Paisas gang member arrests include Jose Angel Martinez, 39, who illegally entered five times. His convictions include sexual indecency with a minor, aggravated assault of a family member, resisting arrest, burglary, drug possession and obstructing police, ICE said; Samuel Valenzuela Martinez, 55, who illegally entered the U.S. five times. His convictions include six DWIs, three convictions each for assault and illegal entry, and once each for hit-and-run, larceny, cruelty toward a child, evading arrest, fraud and illegal reentry, ICE said; Juan Pablo Hernandez Ramos, 35, a child predator who was deported three times. His convictions include possession with intent to promote child pornography, sexual assault, aggravated assault, illegal entry and illegal reentry, ICE said.

Among those arrested were more than 200 charged/convicted with sex crimes and hundreds of Mexicans removed from Houston with more than a thousand combined criminal convictions, The Center Square reported.

(The Center Square) – A Texas district court granted a request for a temporary restraining order against former U.S. Rep. Robert (Beto) O’Rourke, D-El Paso, and his political action group, Powered by People. Both have reportedly raised money to fund dozens of House Democrats leaving Texas. More than 50 left in protest to prevent the Texas House from conducting official business, including voting for a Congressional redistricting bill they oppose.

On Thursday, Attorney General Ken Paxton launched an investigation into Powered by the People and Texas Majority PAC, The Center Square reported.

On Friday afternoon, Paxton sued O’Rourke and Powered by the People in District Court in Tarrant County. Roughly three hours later, the court granted Paxton’s request for an emergency temporary restraining order to block them from continuing to raise or distribute money for absconding Democrats.

The 20-page lawsuit states, “Robert Francis O’Rourke and his political influence operation, Powered by People, are traveling the state misleadingly raising political funds to pay for the personal expenses of Texas Democrats who have abandoned their offices and fled the state in the middle of a Special Legislative Session. Texas law prohibits, as a matter of public confidence and trust, personal fundraising for state officials.

“Nevertheless, Mr. O’Rourke and Powered by People are intentionally blurring the dichotomy between political and personal funds in a deceptive and confusing manner to take advantage of donors. Mr. O’Rourke and Powered by People are directing consumers to political fundraising platforms, such as ActBlue, for the express political purpose of ‘fight[ing]’ Republicans and protecting Democratic seats from ‘corrupt republicans,’ meanwhile the funds are actually being used for lavish personal expenditures (i.e. travel on private jets, luxury hotel accommodations, and fine dining that are disconnected from, and have no legitimate purpose relating to, their legislative positions).”

“Texas law prohibits organizations from engaging in false, misleading, and deceptive acts, such as the fundraising scheme operated by O’Rourke and Powered by People,” Paxton said.

Late Friday, Judge Megan Fahey issued a 3-page ruling stating that the court “finds that harm is imminent to the State, and if the Court does not issue the Temporary Restraining Order, the State will be irreparably injured. Specifically, Defendants’ fundraising conduct constitutes false, misleading, or deceptive acts under the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act, … because Defendants are raising and utilizing political contributions from Texas consumers to pay for the personal expenses of Texas legislators, in violation of Texas law. Because this conduct is unlawful and harms Texas consumers, restraining this conduct is in the public interest.”

She also said that O’Rourke and Powered by People “have and will continue to engage in unlawful fundraising practices and utilization of political funds in a manner that either directly violates or causes Texas Democratic Legislators to violate” Texas penal and election codes and House Rules of Procedure. “Consumers have and continue to suffer irreparable harm through these unlawful acts because they are making political contributions that are being used to fund personal expenses and violate State law.”

The order issues a series of directives and scheduled a hearing for August 19 to determine if a temporary injunction should also be issued.

After the ruling, Paxton said, “The Beto Bribe buyouts that were bankrolling the runaway Democrats have been officially stopped. People like Robert believe Texas can be bought. Today, I stopped his deceptive financial influence scheme that attempted to deceive donors and subvert our constitutional process. They told me to ‘come and take it,’ so I did.”

In response to the lawsuit, O’Rourke said, “Paxton is trying to shut down Powered by People, one of the largest voter registration organizations in the country, because our volunteers fight for voting rights and free elections… the kind of work that threatens the hold that Paxton, Trump and Abbott have on power in Texas.” He also said Paxton “wants to silence me and stop me from leading this organization. He wants to stop us from fighting Trump’s attempt to steal the five congressional seats he needs to hang on to power. But I’m not going anywhere.”