by Christine Sexton, Florida Phoenix
March 25, 2025

A new analysis of potential budget cuts for safety net programs such as Medicaid and in food aid provided to low-income families says the impact could be crushing and far-reaching in Florida and other states.

The new report from the Commonwealth Fund and the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health estimates that Florida could lose nearly 45,000 jobs in 2026 and see its overall gross domestic product shrink by more than $4.5 billion. The report projects the majority of those jobs, or 33,200, would be lost due to the Medicaid reductions as  hospitals and nursing homes, reduce their workforce. The remaining jobs will be lost from reductions to SNAP.

Nationally the cuts could lead to a projected loss of one million jobs $8.8 billion in state and local tax revenue in 2026.

The analysis looked at what could happen if a budget resolution by the Republican-controlled House is carried out. The House called for reducing federal spending by $880 billion in the House committee that oversees Medicaid in the next 10 years and at least $230 billion under the House Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP.

Medicaid is a safety net program jointly funded by the state and federal government that provides the poor, elderly, and disabled access to health care. SNAP, too, is meant for low-income people, and provides monthly benefits through an Electronic Benefits Transfer card.

Republican leaders have pushed back against that they plan to cut these programs noting for example the budget resolution did not mention Medicaid specifically. But Democrats assert there’s no way for the House to meet its targets without cutting Medicaid or SNAP.

The analysis put together by the Commonwealth Fund and the Milken Institute calculated what would happen if the cuts were spread out over the next decade and proportionally to all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

“The proposed Medicaid and SNAP funding reductions would cause a ripple effect across state economies,” states the report. “As hospitals, health care providers, and food retailers face lost revenue, they would be forced to reduce jobs and services, which would further reduce economic activity in other sectors. This decline in employment and wages would lead to decreased consumer spending, impacting businesses across various industries.”

While Florida has not expanded Medicaid to low-income childless adults, as allowable under the Affordable Care Act, the analysis still concludes that Florida would be among the five states hit hardest by the cuts that would lead to a loss of jobs in the health care and food sectors as well as other indirect jobs affected by the elimination of federal spending.

“Medicaid and SNAP programs are not just designed to strengthen individual health and nutrition — they support the economic well-being of communities and businesses nationwide. Cuts of this magnitude willnot be harmless. In fact, such drastic reductions would harm millions of families and also trigger widespread economic instability and major job losses,” Leighton Ku, lead author of the analysis and director of the Center for Health Policy Research and professor of health policy and management at GWU’s Milken Institute School of Public Health.

Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com.

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