(The Center Square) – Major hurricane status, with wind speeds greater than 110 mph, is expected by Saturday morning just north of the Dominican Republic as Tropical Storm Erin on Tuesday churned across the Atlantic Ocean toward the United States.

The National Hurricane Center, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said it is too early to know the impacts of Erin on the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Erin was described in an 11 a.m. Eastern update as “moving quickly westward” at 23 mph, at that point about 820 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and 1,765 miles east of the Northern Leewards.

Erin is projected to become a hurricane on Thursday, meaning wind speeds of 74-95 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Overnight Friday into Saturday, it would leave the Category 2 range of 96-110 mph and reach Category 3, or major, of 111-129 mph.

Along the southeastern coastline of America, preparations have begun for potential arrival next week. Where is a guess, with the cone of probability still far from Florida.

AccuWeather’s forecasting cone keeps the storm off the coast at least through Tuesday with a turn to the north avoiding the Deep South.

Rough surf and rip currents, however, are likely by the weekend and into early next week regardless of potential landfall.

The Atlantic hurricane season opened June 1 and runs to Nov. 30. Average formation date for the season’s first is Aug. 11.

Last year, three hurricanes in 66 days landed in Florida. The season’s worst damage was from one of them, Helene, that landed near Dekle Beach, Fla., on Sept. 26 and traveled into western North Carolina on Sept. 27. Helene was a Category 4 upon arrival with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.

The Tarheel State is in its 46th week of recovery from the storm that killed 107 and did an estimated $60 billion damage. Across seven states, Helene killed 236.

(The Center Square) – Though the economy and immigration were issues that helped President Donald Trump secure the White House, some economists have said that too steep a decline in immigration will prove harmful to the economy.

The Trump administration touted a statistic Monday reported by CNN the day before: The U.S. may see negative net migration in 2025, meaning more people will leave the country than move there. However, economists from both right- and left-leaning policy centers warn that too little immigration drags down GDP growth.

The center-right American Enterprise Institute recently authored a report with the center-left Brookings Institution projecting net migration would land between -525,000 and 115,000 in 2025, but with “zero or net negative migration” being the more likely outcome.

The report considered the president’s deportation efforts, as well as his broader immigration policy, predicting lower legal permanent resident entries than in his first term and factoring in greater vetting for temporary visas, a suspended refugee program, travel bans and terminated humanitarian parole programs.

“All told, given changes at the border and the regular migration system, we expect 2.47 million to 2.76 million fewer people to come to the U.S in 2025 than in 2024,” they wrote. And later, that they “expect around 675,000 to 1,020,000” more immigrants to leave the country than last year. 

They project these changes will reduce GDP growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points.

Chief Economist for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Gbenga Ajilore wasn’t surprised by the report’s findings. 

“While think tanks may have different ideologies, there are basic facts that a majority of economists believe in, and one is that immigration has a net positive impact on our economy and our communities,” Ajilore said in an email to The Center Square. 

Lower immigration means a smaller labor pool – which one might think translates to less people competing for the same amount of jobs, meaning more employment among American citizens. However, it actually means less jobs overall, according to David Bier, director of immigration studies at the libertarian Cato Institute.

“Yes, there are fewer competitors for jobs, but because there are fewer people requesting services and goods in society, then there’s a comparable shrinking in the number of jobs for U.S.-born workers as well,” Bier told The Center Square in an interview.

Giovanni Peri, a professor in international economics at the University of California, Davis, and the founder of the school’s research center on migration policy, along with a colleague, has studied some of the same data that was covered in the AEI-Brookings report. The report anticipates, as does Peri, some of the other negative economic impacts that can result from a smaller labor force. 

“We do not expect natives to take [jobs held by immigrants] as the labor market is already tight, especially in manual services… and the native labor force is shrinking,” Peri wrote in an email to The Center Square. “As a consequence, prices in those services will increase.” 

For these reasons, in addition to the loss of some highly skilled workers and lower investments, according to Peri, Peri and Georgetown Professor of Economics Anna Maria Mayda predicted an even greater impact on GDP growth of -0.7%.

Director of Immigration Law and Policy Research at the Economic Policy Institute Daniel Costa doubts that net migration will be negative in 2025 but thinks it will be soon. 

“I am skeptical that we will see negative net migration in the first year, just based on some of the legal immigration flows… which might take longer for the administration to impact,” Costa told The Center Square. “But I do think we will likely see it in the next years of the administration, especially after the major influx of $170 billion the administration has been gifted from Congress for immigration enforcement.”

The AEI-Brookings report authors believe net migration will start to recover some in 2027 and 2028, “as the adverse economic and political consequences of extreme policy stance become clear.” Bier was less optimistic.

“I wouldn’t think that because we have so much money going into ICE and Border Patrol and almost none of it has been spent at this point,” Bier said. “I think it’s more likely that you’re going to see an escalation over four years.”

(The Center Square) – In the first six months of the Trump administration, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in Houston arrested 356 illegal foreign nationals who are confirmed gang members.

Combined, they illegally entered the U.S. 1,434 times and were convicted of 1,685 criminal offenses, ICE said.

“Despite attempts by some to undermine the courageous work being done by our officers, the brave men and women of ICE continue to put their lives on the line every day to arrest violent transnational gang members, foreign fugitives and dangerous criminal aliens,” ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations-Houston acting Field Office Director Gabriel Martinez said. “In just the past couple of years in Houston, transnational gang members were responsible for brutally raping and murdering an innocent 12-year-old girl on her way to the store. Our officers know their efforts can help prevent atrocities like that from ever occurring again and they won’t rest until they’re all gone.”

Overall, ICE ERO-Houston officers arrested confirmed members of more than 40 gangs. The greatest number of gang arrests was 159 from the Paisas gang. The next greatest number was 39 confirmed MS-13 members and 25 Tren de Aragua members, which the Trump administration designated as foreign terrorist organizations. Other arrests were of confirmed Tango Blast, 15th Street Gang, Latin Kings and Surenos-13 gang members.

Of their combined 1,685 criminal convictions, offenses include abduction, homicide, sexual assault, sexual assault of a child, promotion of child pornography, aggravated assault, domestic violence, burglary, alien smuggling, sex trafficking, organized crime, drug trafficking, drug possession, arson, trespassing, unlawful possession of a firearm, illegal entry, illegal reentry, fraud, escape and evading arrest, ICE said.

Of the worst offenders arrested that ICE highlighted, all are men and citizens of El Salvador and Mexico.

One Mexican national and confirmed Surenos-13 gang member, Jonathan Morales-Abundis, 30, was arrested after illegally entering the U.S. 29 times, ICE said. His illegal entries total nearly his age. Despite that, he was only convicted three times for illegal reentry and once for alien smuggling and illegal entry.

Another arrested Surenos-13 gang member was Juan Manuel Cayetano-Vasquez, 48, who illegally entered the U.S. 13 times, ICE said. His convictions include six for drug possession and three for resisting arrest; twice each for domestic violence, assault and identity theft; and once each for false imprisonment, illegal entry, illegal reentry, battery and destroying evidence, ICE said.

An arrested Latin Kings member and Mexican national, Luis Alberto Hernandez, 46, illegally entered the U.S. three times. His rap sheet, according to ICE, includes four convictions for domestic violence, three for illegal reentry, twice for aggravated assault, and once each for drug trafficking, unlawful possession of a firearm, obstructing police, disorderly conduct, drug possession, interfering with a 911 emergency call and child abuse.

Salvadoran nationals arrested include Milton Alexander Magana Fuentes, 31, a child predator and Paisas gang member who illegally entered the U.S. four times, ICE said. His convictions include sexual indecency with a child, failure to register as a sex offender, illegal reentry and illegal entry.

Salvadoran MS-13 gang member arrests include Ronald Alberto Rivas-Aguilar, 28, who illegally entered twice and was convicted of homicide, and Jonathan Josue Valle-Moralez, 31, who was previously deported, ICE said. He was convicted of unlawful possession of a firearm and in March was transferred into U.S. Marshals’ custody to be prosecuted for homicide.

ICE highlighted arrests of Mexican nationals and confirmed Paisas gang members including Luis Fernando Nava-Garcia, 20, who ICE said illegally entered the U.S. 40 times, more than twice the number of years he’s been alive. Yet, he was only convicted twice for illegal reentry.

Other confirmed Paisas gang members arrested include Javier Ivan Montoya-Avila, 34, who illegally entered 26 times. His convictions include burglary, tampering with government records, criminal trespass, illegal reentry and illegal entry, ICE said; Humberto Romero Avila, 45, who illegally entered 10 times. He was deported to Mexico where he was wanted for homicide, ICE said. His convictions include four DWIs, larceny, illegal reentry and illegal entry.

Others Paisas gang member arrests include Jose Angel Martinez, 39, who illegally entered five times. His convictions include sexual indecency with a minor, aggravated assault of a family member, resisting arrest, burglary, drug possession and obstructing police, ICE said; Samuel Valenzuela Martinez, 55, who illegally entered the U.S. five times. His convictions include six DWIs, three convictions each for assault and illegal entry, and once each for hit-and-run, larceny, cruelty toward a child, evading arrest, fraud and illegal reentry, ICE said; Juan Pablo Hernandez Ramos, 35, a child predator who was deported three times. His convictions include possession with intent to promote child pornography, sexual assault, aggravated assault, illegal entry and illegal reentry, ICE said.

Among those arrested were more than 200 charged/convicted with sex crimes and hundreds of Mexicans removed from Houston with more than a thousand combined criminal convictions, The Center Square reported.