Connect with us

The Center Square

Everyday Economics: Stagflationary policy – the economy at a crossroad | National

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – Orphe Divounguy – (The Center Square – ) 2025-05-11 17:29:00


The U.S. economy faces uncertainty in the second quarter of 2025, with mixed signals of progress and risks. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.1% decline in prices, easing headline inflation to 2.4%. The labor market is cooling, with compensation increases slowing, which could reduce future inflation. However, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, keeping interest rates unchanged due to concerns over tariff-induced supply disruptions and policy uncertainty. Housing market data will be crucial in determining whether construction slows, which could signal broader economic downturns. Market participants await more inflation and housing data for further guidance.

(The Center Square) – The U.S. economy finds itself at a curious intersection with mounting uncertainty as we navigate through the second quarter of 2025. Recent data shows encouraging signs of disinflation, but both the Federal Reserve and market participants remain cautious about several looming challenges.

Inflation: March Progress and April Expectations

March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data delivered welcome news as prices actually fell by 0.1% during the month. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.8% previously. Core prices (excluding volatile food and energy) rose by just 0.06% for the month, with the annual core inflation rate moderating to 2.8% from 3.1%. This week, we’ll get April’s inflation numbers, with economists forecasting a modest 0.2% increase in headline inflation and a 0.3% rise in core CPI. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to further ease to 2.3%.

The labor market’s cooling also points to lower inflation. Compensation increases have decelerated to levels consistent with price inflation falling below 2% – a key metric the Fed watches closely as a leading indicator of future price pressures.

The Fed’s ‘Wait-And-See’ Approach Is A Risky One

Despite falling inflation and a cooling labor market, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates unchanged at their recent meeting. Fed Chair Powell cited two primary concerns that justify this cautious approach:

  1. Tariff-Induced Supply Disruptions: Recently implemented tariffs could potentially create supply shortages that put upward pressure on prices, temporarily reversing some of the progress on inflation.
  2. Policy Uncertainty: The frequent policy changes from the federal government have created an unusually uncertain economic environment, leading the Fed to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach.

Powell explicitly acknowledged that risks have increased on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate – higher unemployment and higher inflation both represent elevated threats to economic stability. However, he reassured markets that the Fed remains prepared to “act rapidly” should labor market deterioration accelerate.

Economic research supports the view that although higher tariffs could push prices higher initially, the negative demand effects are likely to offset the price pressure with growth and inflation falling below average for a few years after the policy change. Add to that proposed tax hikes along with government spending cuts, and aggregate demand could decline significantly.

Housing Market at a Pivotal Point

This week’s housing data releases will provide critical insights into whether the construction sector – a significant contributor to economic activity – is poised for a larger slowdown or continued resilience.

Building permits and housing starts will reveal whether builders anticipate sustained housing demand or are preparing to pull back. With rising housing inventory and anticipated declines in single-family home prices, construction companies may become more hesitant to break ground on new projects.

The implications extend far beyond the housing sector itself. Historically, declines in residential investment have often preceded broader economic downturns. A potential slowdown in construction would likely create drag on labor demand and overall employment growth – developments the Fed is undoubtedly monitoring closely.

Outlook: Balancing Optimism with Caution

The labor market remains balanced. However, several clouds remain on the horizon:

  • Tariff Effects: The full impact of recent tariffs has yet to be felt in supply chains, business profits, and the labor market.
  • Housing Market Vulnerability: Given housing’s outsized role in economic cycles, any pronounced weakness in construction activity could have amplifier effects.
  • Policy Uncertainty: Both fiscal and monetary policy appear to be in flux, complicating business planning and investment decisions.

Market participants should pay particular attention to this week’s inflation data, housing metrics, and Fed speakers, especially Christopher Waller and Chairman Powell, who may provide further clarity on the timetable for potential rate cuts if disinflation continues.

The post Everyday Economics: Stagflationary policy – the economy at a crossroad | National appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com



Note: The following A.I. based commentary is not part of the original article, reproduced above, but is offered in the hopes that it will promote greater media literacy and critical thinking, by making any potential bias more visible to the reader –Staff Editor.

Political Bias Rating: Centrist

The article presents a neutral and factual report on current economic conditions, Federal Reserve policies, and market outlooks. It discusses inflation data, labor market trends, tariff impacts, and housing market indicators without advocating for a particular political ideology or policy position. The tone is informative and analytical, focusing on economic indicators and Fed statements rather than promoting a specific agenda. This approach reflects balanced reporting that aims to inform readers rather than influence them ideologically.

The Center Square

U.S., China reach trade agreement; details coming Monday | National

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – Alan Wooten – (The Center Square – ) 2025-05-11 13:37:00


The U.S. and China announced a trade agreement Sunday after tense tariff disputes, impacting $600 billion in annual trade. Details remain unclear, but talks in Geneva were described as productive. Tariffs had escalated to 145% by the U.S. on Chinese imports and 125% by China on American goods, contributing to market declines this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer called the talks constructive, with swift progress suggesting fewer differences than expected. President Trump described the deal as a “total reset,” aiming to address the $1.2 trillion U.S. trade deficit and work toward easing the national emergency caused by tariffs.

(The Center Square) – Market implications are expected Monday morning worldwide following Sunday’s announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and China.

No details were announced between countries doing an estimated $600 billion in trade annually. The two superpowers have sparred since President Donald Trump’s January inauguration and subsequent tariff implementations coupled with China’s retaliations.

The deal – how comprehensive is unknown, and may be elusive in Monday’s announcement – was reached in Geneva, Switzerland. Tariffs between the countries have escalated to 145% from America on Chinese imports, and 125% from China on American imports.

“We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Sunday afternoon statement released by the White House.

The strength of economies created a natural resilience between the countries, China saying it would not be bullied and Trump saying America would be first. This calendar year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 3%, the S&P 500 Index is down 3.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index is down 7.2%.

Regardless of how detailed an agreement is announced, analysts collectively forecast market tensions to persist.

Following Trump’s Liberation Day moves on April 2, American businesses reported negative impact in the near-term which the president said would later turn positive. Reports say contraction in China’s manufacturing sector was the fastest rate since February 2024.

“We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself,” Bessent said. “And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”

Bessent and Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer said the meetings were “constructive” and Swiss hosts were instrumental in helping move things along.

“It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought,” Greer said in the White House statement. “That being said, there was a lot of groundwork that went into these two days.”

And he added, “Just remember why we’re here in the first place – the United States has a massive $1.2 trillion trade deficit, so the president declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs, and we’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us to work toward resolving that national emergency.”

Vice Premier He Lifeng led Chinese representation in the meetings with Bessent and Greer.

Late Saturday, Trump on social media said the conversations were going well and agreements on many areas were coming into place. He called it a “total reset.”

According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, tariffs by China on American products and America on Chinese products was 21.5% or lower from January 2018 until this year. Since Feb. 4, China has four times retaliated against imposed U.S. tariff increases. Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports have gone from 6.5% in January seven years ago to 147.6%, and U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports have gone, respectively, from 10.3% to 124.1%, the institute says.

Before the weekend, Trump was said to be considering lowering the tariffs to 80%.

The post U.S., China reach trade agreement; details coming Monday | National appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com



Note: The following A.I. based commentary is not part of the original article, reproduced above, but is offered in the hopes that it will promote greater media literacy and critical thinking, by making any potential bias more visible to the reader –Staff Editor.

Political Bias Rating: Centrist

The article provides a factual account of the U.S.-China trade deal announcement and its context, with no overt ideological stance. It reports on both U.S. and Chinese perspectives and the trade tensions that have escalated over time. The language is neutral, using direct quotes from officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer, as well as President Trump’s comments, without expressing strong opinions. While the article discusses trade tariffs and their economic impacts, it refrains from taking a side, focusing instead on presenting the developments surrounding the trade discussions. The lack of editorializing suggests that the article maintains a centrist and informative tone.

Continue Reading

News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Aerospace, pharmaceutical industries are North Carolina winners in trade deal | North Carolina

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – By Alan Wooten | The Center Square – (The Center Square – ) 2025-05-11 12:01:00


North Carolina benefits from an enhanced trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., announced by President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer. The deal improves market access, boosting robust economic ties. Since 2014, British investment in North Carolina exceeds $1.5 billion, supporting over 4,450 jobs and 293 British firms in the state. Key exports include pharmaceuticals, aerospace products, electrical parts, and agriculture. Trade value ranges from $2.5 to $3 billion. North Carolina offers favorable business conditions, with low taxes, a strong labor force, and leading manufacturing workforce. The agreement also secures supply chains for aerospace and pharmaceuticals, benefiting major local companies.

(The Center Square) – Count North Carolina among the winners for enhanced trade alignment between the United States and the United Kingdom.

President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deal on Thursday, the 80th anniversary of Victory Day for World War II. The 78-year-old second-term Republican president noted agriculture exports, and the 62-year-old Labour Party leader praised protection and creation of jobs. Both said there is enhanced market access, all of which benefits already robust activity between the state and country.

British capital investment since 2014 exceeds $1.5 billion, says the public-private Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina created by state lawmakers. This includes more than 4,450 jobs and 54 expansions or new companies, lifting the totals to 293 British firms operating in the state and over 23,000 people working for United Kingdom companies.

Pharmaceuticals and medicines, aerospace products and parts, and electrical accessories and parts – including for vehicles – have been staples of North Carolina goods going across the Atlantic. Agriculture products, the state’s No. 1 industry, is fourth on the list. Financial, management and consulting, and activity related to bank lending lead the services sector exports to the United Kingdom.

Estimates on the value of trade between the country and the state are in the $2.5 billion to $3 billion range. Exports from the United Kingdom to North Carolina were about $1.9 billion in the most recent 10 years, and $1.1 billion from North Carolina to the United Kingdom.

North Carolina has several drivers with the British and other countries. The 2.25% corporate income tax is on the way to elimination by 2030; the bond rating is AAA for the Big 3 of Standard & Poor’s Global, Fitch and Moody’s; and electricity costs are nearly 20% lower than the national average. The manufacturing workforce is ranked No. 1 in the Southeast; total labor force exceeds 5.2 million; and colleges and universities number 110.

In 2022, then-Gov. Roy Cooper and Penny Mordaunt, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland minister for international trade, signed a memorandum of understanding for cooperation and trade relations. She noted Honeywell and LabCorp among national players and said the UK “is continuing to seek out ways to remove barriers to trade at a state level as part of a wider U.S. trade strategy.”

The White House release says the deal “maximizes the competitiveness and secures the supply chain of U.S. aerospace manufacturers through preferential access to high-quality U.K. aerospace components,” and “creates a secure supply chain for pharmaceutical products.”

On the former, North Carolina is home to HAECO Americas, Collins Aerospace, Honda Aircraft Company, Lockheed Martin and Spirit AeroSystems. For the latter, heavyweights in the state are Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Merck and Eli Lilly.

The post Aerospace, pharmaceutical industries are North Carolina winners in trade deal | North Carolina appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com



Note: The following A.I. based commentary is not part of the original article, reproduced above, but is offered in the hopes that it will promote greater media literacy and critical thinking, by making any potential bias more visible to the reader –Staff Editor.

Political Bias Rating: Centrist

The article presents a neutral, fact-based report on a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom, specifically highlighting the benefits for North Carolina. It outlines various economic and business aspects, such as British capital investment, job creation, and trade statistics, without any clear ideological framing or opinion. The tone is factual and focuses on the positive outcomes of the deal, with both political leaders, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer, offering complementary statements. While it includes political figures, the article mainly reports on the trade agreement’s economic impacts rather than promoting a specific ideological stance.

Continue Reading

News from the South - North Carolina News Feed

Carolinas lawmakers urging amendments to U.S. Constitution | North Carolina

Published

on

www.thecentersquare.com – By David Beasley | The Center Square contributor – (The Center Square – ) 2025-05-11 09:01:00


Legislation in North and South Carolina seeks to authorize each state to join a convention to amend the U.S. Constitution, aiming to limit federal government power and spending. North Carolina’s resolution, which has passed the House and is pending in the Senate, advocates for term limits for Congress, fiscal restraints, and limits on federal power. State Rep. Dennis Ridell emphasizes that 19 states have already passed similar resolutions. A convention would require approval from 34 states. In South Carolina, a similar resolution, House Bill 3007, is pending in the Senate after being signed into law in 2022.

(The Center Square) – Legislation pending in the Carolinas legislatures would authorize each state to join a convention to amend the U.S. Constitution to limit the power and spending of the federal government.

The federal governments has accumulated a “crushing national debt through unsustainable budgeting and spending,” says a resolution which has already passed the North Carolina House of Representatives and is pending in the Senate.

The U.S. Constitution allows two methods of enacting amendments, North Carolina state Rep. Dennis Ridell, R-Alamance, one of the sponsors of the resolution, told the Senate Judiciary Committee 1 this week. One is by Congress, the other is through a convention of states, the legislator said.

“What this bill does is helps North Carolina join the other 19 states that have already accepted and passed this resolution word for word,” Ridell said.

The resolution has three components: term limits for Congress, imposing fiscal restraints on the federal government, and limits on the power and reach of the government.

“We as state legislators have the power to initiate amendments to the Constitution,” Ridell said. “We don’t have to sit by and wait for Washington to get it right. We actually have a role here.”

In 2020, the national debt was $24 trillion, Riddell told the committee. Today it is $37 trillion.

“If you think that is sustainable and that’s not a problem, you are living in a fantasy world,” he said.

The convention would only be allowed to consider the three issues defined in the resolution, Ridell explained.

It would take 34 states approving the resolution before the convention could be called, he said. He was asked if Congress had tried to adopt solutions to those same three issues.

“If it’s been tried by Congress, it’s failed,” he said. “A balanced budget amendment – we keep waiting for it, no sign of it.”

The North Carolina Senate Judiciary Committee approved the resolution, sending it the Rules Committee.

In South Carolina, a similar resolution, House Bill 3007, calling for a Convention of States, is pending in the state Senate.

The South Carolina Legislature also approved a Convention of States resolution in 2022 which was signed into law by Gov. Henry McMaster.

The post Carolinas lawmakers urging amendments to U.S. Constitution | North Carolina appeared first on www.thecentersquare.com



Note: The following A.I. based commentary is not part of the original article, reproduced above, but is offered in the hopes that it will promote greater media literacy and critical thinking, by making any potential bias more visible to the reader –Staff Editor.

Political Bias Rating: Right-Leaning

The article presents information about legislation aimed at limiting federal government power and spending through a constitutional convention of states, a position typically associated with conservative and right-leaning political ideology. The tone and language emphasize concerns about “crushing national debt” and “unsustainable budgeting and spending,” framing these as urgent problems that require action outside of Congress, which is portrayed as ineffective. The piece highlights the perspective of a Republican state representative advocating for fiscal restraint and term limits, aligning with common right-leaning themes of limited government and fiscal conservatism. While the article is largely factual and reports on legislative actions, its framing and selection of quotes underscore a right-leaning ideological stance rather than a purely neutral report.

Continue Reading

Trending