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Arkansas tax revenue dips, prompting adjustments in forecasts

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arkansasadvocate.com – Antoinette Grajeda – 2025-05-22 12:53:00


On Nov. 21, 2024, Arkansas Department of Finance Secretary Jim Hudson explained a $374.2 million drop in Fiscal Year 2025 net available revenue, citing a tax deadline extension due to severe weather and recent tax cuts. FY 2025 net revenue is forecasted at $6.526 billion, a 5.4% decrease from FY 2024, with a surplus of $214.8 million, down from $698.4 million. Tax reductions approved in 2023 and 2024 lowered corporate and individual income tax rates, affecting revenue. Revised forecasts for FY 2026 and FY 2027 show modest growth but remain below previous predictions, influenced by economic uncertainty and tariff concerns.

by Antoinette Grajeda, Arkansas Advocate
May 22, 2025

Arkansas’ chief financial officer on Thursday attributed a $374.2 million decrease in net available revenue for the current fiscal year to a tax deadline extension due to severe weather and tax cuts in recent years.

Members of the Arkansas Legislative Council questioned Department of Finance and Administration Secretary Jim Hudson about a revised general revenue forecast released Wednesday that projects Fiscal Year 2025 net available revenue will reach $6.526 billion, a 5.4% decrease from FY 2024. 

The FY 2025 surplus is expected to be $214.8 million, more than three times less than the $698.4 million surplus in FY 2024.

Because the governor issued executive orders authorizing the extension of the deadline for individual and corporate income tax payments to July 31, some of the revenue originally expected for FY 2025, which ends on June 30, will now shift to FY 2026, Hudson said. 

“It’s not a net loss of revenue, it’s just more of a timing effect of it. So we’ll see some leakage of revenue both on the personal side and the corporate side out of FY 25 into FY 26,” Hudson said. “We’ve done some estimating on that, but we really don’t know how many people will take advantage of that yet.”

Arkansas governor signs tax, appropriation bills after special legislative session ends

In a May 21 letter to the ALC chairs, Hudson said the revenue decline compared to FY 2024 is also expected because of the impact of individual and corporate income tax rate reductions passed in two special sessions of the 94th General Assembly. 

State lawmakers in September 2023 approved legislation to cut the top corporate income tax rate from 5.1% to 4.8% and the top individual income tax rate from 4.7% to 4.4%. The rate changes took effect on Jan. 1, 2024.   

The General Assembly approved another round of cuts in June 2024 that lowered the top corporate income tax rate from 4.8% to 4.3% and the top individual income tax rate from 4.4% to 3.9%, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2024. The tax cuts went into effect immediately upon the governor’s signature. 

Year-to-date, net available revenues have declined by $224.7 million from the same time last year, resulting in collections that are $52.2 million over forecast at that point, according to the new DFA report. 

Sales and use tax collections have also been marginally below forecast and individual income taxes have been above forecast primarily due to estimated payments. Corporate income tax collections are below forecast, according to the report. 

“Corporate collections are notoriously volatile, they’re even more so I’d say right now just given the number of tax cuts that we’ve done with some retroactive effect, so there could be a forecasting component to this,” Hudson said. 

DFA’s report, which was released Wednesday as required by state law, included revised forecasts for FY 2026 and FY 2027. Net available revenues are expected to reach $6.679 billion, an increase of 152.8 million above FY 2025. The projected FY 2026 surplus is $185.1 million.

FY 2027 net available revenue is expected to reach $6.88 billion, an increase of $201.3 million above FY 2026. 

The revised projections are lower than the Nov. 14, 2024 forecast, which predicted $6.794 billion in net available revenue for FY 2026 and $6.997 billion for FY 2027. The adjustments are “largely attributable to shifts in economic conditions,” according to the May 21 report. 

The revenue forecast is based on S&P Global Market Intelligence’s baseline economic forecast, according to the report. The S&P, one of three major stock market indexes, has had a volatile year as the market reacts to threats by President Donald Trump to levy steep tariffs.

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“There’s a lot of speculation about the impact of tariffs, where the economy’s going,” Greenbrier Republican Rep. Stephen Meeks said Thursday. “…is any of that driving the need and is there anything looking forward that we need to be concerned about revenues coming into the state?”

Hudson responded that reductions made to the revenue forecast were “almost entirely driven by macroeconomic considerations.” Tariffs are a big component of forecasting, but Hudson noted it’s more the perception of the potential impact of tariffs that’s affecting the market instead of actual tariffs because many have been paused, he said. 

Earlier this month, the United States and China agreed to lower steep tariffs for 90 days, States Newsroom reported. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods dropped to a universal 10% baseline from the 145% Trump imposed in April. A 20% emergency tariff announced in February on all products because of illicit fentanyl chemicals in China remained in place. 

The back and forth on tariffs has caused uncertainty, which the market hates, Hudson said. However, the state’s chief financial officer said he believes “the potential upside from tariffs could be significant” for Arkansas if the result is trade agreements that are more favorable to the U.S. than they are today.  

“I think particularly for Arkansas, if our agri exports — we get access to certain foreign markets that we’re currently closed off to, that could be a significant benefit to the state,” he said. “But at this point, we don’t know what the actual long-term benefits will be. Because of the uncertainty, analysts have reduced the projected growth; we’re following suit.”

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Arkansas Advocate is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Arkansas Advocate maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sonny Albarado for questions: info@arkansasadvocate.com.

The post Arkansas tax revenue dips, prompting adjustments in forecasts appeared first on arkansasadvocate.com



Note: The following A.I. based commentary is not part of the original article, reproduced above, but is offered in the hopes that it will promote greater media literacy and critical thinking, by making any potential bias more visible to the reader –Staff Editor.

Political Bias Rating: Centrist

This content presents a factual and balanced overview of Arkansas’ state budget situation, focusing on budget forecasts, tax changes, and economic conditions without visible partisan commentary or rhetorical framing. It objectively reports statements from government officials, legislative actions involving tax cuts, and economic uncertainties, aiming to inform readers rather than persuade toward a political perspective. The article relies on official data and quotes from both government and legislative representatives, indicating a neutral stance typical of centrist reporting.

News from the South - Arkansas News Feed

Trump administration violated order in deportations to South Sudan, judge says

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arkansasadvocate.com – Ariana Figueroa – 2025-05-21 14:50:00


A federal judge in Boston found the Trump administration violated a preliminary injunction by deporting eight migrants to South Sudan without proper due process, denying them meaningful chances to object. The judge ordered a narrowly tailored remedy, demanding fair hearings before third-country removals. South Sudan is considered dangerous, and the U.S. advises against travel there. The administration defended its actions, calling the deportees violent individuals, but did not confirm the exact removal location. The conflict highlights ongoing clashes between the Trump administration and courts over immigration enforcement and due process, with multiple judges challenging rapid deportations to third countries.

Trump administration violated order in deportations to South Sudan, judge says

by Ariana Figueroa, Arkansas Advocate
May 21, 2025

WASHINGTON — A federal judge in Boston Wednesday found the Trump administration violated his preliminary injunction barring third-country removals of migrants without due process, after immigration lawyers say their clients were placed on deportation flights to South Sudan.

“It was impossible for these people to have a meaningful opportunity to object to their transfer to South Sudan,” U.S. District Judge Brian E. Murphy said. “The government’s actions in this case are unquestionably violative of this court’s order.”

Murphy said he will narrowly tailor a remedy to the violation of his April order. He said the Trump administration must give proper due process to the eight men who were placed on deportation flights on Tuesday and given less than 24 hours to challenge their removal to South Sudan.

South Sudan, in East Africa, is violence-ridden and the U.S. State Department advises against travel there.

Department of Justice attorneys would not confirm where the plane landed, but according to flight tracking data reviewed by the New York Times, there is a chartered plane owned by a company used in the past for deportations that has landed in the East African nation of Djibouti.

Murphy did not detail what contempt charges would look like, but asked Department of Justice attorneys for a list of names of people involved in the flights for potential consequences.

The hearing in Massachusetts is one of several clashes between the Trump administration and the judiciary branch over the issue of due process in immigration enforcement, as the Trump administration aims to enact mass deportations.

The White House in a statement attacked Murphy as a “far-left activist judge” trying to protect migrants with criminal convictions. The list of individuals the White House said were on the flight were from Cuba, Laos, Mexico, South Sudan, Burma and Vietnam.

Flight originated in Texas

An hour before Wednesday’s hearing, top Department of Homeland Security officials at a press conference defended the decision, but declined to confirm if the migrants were sent to South Sudan and argued the country was not their “final destination.”

However, U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement Acting Director Todd Lyons said that South Sudan had agreed to take the men.

“We conducted a deportation flight from Texas to remove some of the most barbaric violent individuals illegally in the United States,” DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said at the press event.

McLaughlin said that the men were still in DHS custody.

Murphy, appointed by former President Joe Biden, has not ordered the Trump administration to return any of the men. At the hearing, he did question a top ICE official in Texas, Marcos Charles, and directed him to find out if it were possible to hold credible fear interviews for the men instead of requiring they be returned to the U.S.

Immigration attorneys who last night had asked for the emergency hearing pushed for the immigrants to be brought back to the U.S.

DOJ attorney Drew Ensign disagreed and said that any remedy from Murphy should be narrowly tailored and that ordering the men to be returned would be “too broad.”

Ensign also said the Trump administration’s position is that 24 hours is enough time for an immigrant to challenge their removal to a country that is not their home.

Trina Realmuto, of the National Immigration Litigation Alliance, argued 30 days is preferable, because many of those removed do not have legal representation and need time to find an attorney and determine if they could face possible harm in another country.

Murphy said that he would clarify how much time is appropriate. He directed DOJ attorneys to make sure that everyone involved in third-country removals, from pilots to immigration officers, to be aware of his order and the possible criminal contempt charges if it’s not followed.

On late Tuesday, in an emergency hearing, Murphy ordered the government to keep the eight migrants in DHS custody until more details could be revealed in Wednesday’s hearing to determine if his April order was violated.

In that earlier order, Murphy barred the Trump administration from removing individuals from a country that is not their home country without giving them time to raise any concerns that they might face harm in the country they would be removed to.

Repeated conflicts between administration and judges

Sending migrants to South Sudan would bring the same concerns as sending them to Libya, another third country with a history of clashes.

The Trump administration extended Temporary Protection Status to nationals of South Sudan for six months to remain in the U.S., meaning those immigrants were granted work permits and deportation protections because their home country was deemed too dangerous to return to. 

In early May, Murphy warned Trump officials that any deportations to a third country such as Libya and Saudi Arabia — countries with human rights violations that the Trump administration was considering for deportations — would have clearly violated his April preliminary injunction. 

It’s not the first conflict between federal judges and the Trump administration.

A federal judge in Maryland grilled Department of Justice lawyers and accused the administration of stonewalling information on its efforts to return a wrongly deported man from El Salvador. Another federal judge in Maryland ordered the return of a separate wrongly deported man to an El Salvador prison, an order that the DOJ is currently appealing.

A federal judge in the District of Columbia ordered the administration to return deportation planes to the U.S. carrying men removed under the wartime Alien Enemies Act of 1798, but the planes landed in El Salvador to take the migrants to the notorious prison CECOT. The judge threatened possible contempt against the Trump administration.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday again rejected a request from the Trump administration to remove its block on using the Alien Enemies Act over concerns about due process.

The Trump administration in March invoked the Alien Enemies Act to apply to Venezuelans 14 and older with suspected gang ties to rapidly deport them, raising concerns about a lack of due process. 

Arkansas Advocate is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Arkansas Advocate maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sonny Albarado for questions: info@arkansasadvocate.com.

The post Trump administration violated order in deportations to South Sudan, judge says appeared first on arkansasadvocate.com



Note: The following A.I. based commentary is not part of the original article, reproduced above, but is offered in the hopes that it will promote greater media literacy and critical thinking, by making any potential bias more visible to the reader –Staff Editor.

Political Bias Rating: Center-Left

The article takes a critical stance toward the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement, focusing on the due process violations and the judicial clashes regarding deportation procedures. The reporting emphasizes the role of federal judges in holding the administration accountable for its policies, which could be seen as sympathetic to those challenging these policies. It highlights the involvement of immigration lawyers and human rights concerns, portraying the Trump administration’s actions as violating legal and humanitarian principles. While the article presents both sides, it leans more toward highlighting the consequences of the administration’s policies on vulnerable populations, aligning with a Center-Left perspective.

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News from the South - Arkansas News Feed

Jailor arrested for helping New Orleans inmates escape

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www.youtube.com – THV11 – 2025-05-21 09:19:09

SUMMARY: Sterling Williams, a maintenance worker at Orleans Parish Jail, has been arrested for aiding an inmate, Antoine Massie, in escaping. Williams turned off the water to a cell, allowing inmates to remove a toilet, saw through steel bars, and break out. Williams claims he was threatened with a shank if he didn’t comply. Louisiana authorities have captured five of the ten escapees, with five still on the run. Sheriff Susan Hudson has requested millions of dollars to address security issues at the facility, which suffers from outdated systems, staffing shortages, and security vulnerabilities.

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One jailor has been arrested after allegedly helping 10 inmates escape from a New Orleans jail.

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News from the South - Arkansas News Feed

People in Lincoln assess damage after severe weather

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www.youtube.com – 40/29 News – 2025-05-20 18:25:28

SUMMARY: Severe storms in Northwest Arkansas caused significant damage on Monday night, particularly in Lincoln, where multiple homes lost their roofs and a local farm, DK Ranch, was destroyed. The Soto family, who lived nearby, sought shelter during the storm, describing a terrifying experience as their mobile home was nearly destroyed. Despite the storm’s brief duration, the destruction was widespread. The community, known for its close-knit nature, rallied together to help with the cleanup, with no reported injuries. Lincoln Mayor Doug Hutchens confirmed extensive damage throughout the city, but residents are already working together to recover.

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People in Lincoln assess damage after severe weather

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